2/26 - stage 3b

2m: bullish side


SPX - looking for bullish pullback move up


SPY - resistance remaining on 30min


XLF - closed at resistance


UUP - reversed lower...bullish for SPX


JJC - above 30ema


VIX - new low...bullish

• too many signals saying that we are still in a rangebound market to predict what will happen on monday
  

2/25 - stage 3b

2m: bullish side


SPX week - got a lil more up to go


SPX - reversal candle


SPY - lower highs though


XLF - symmetrical triangle


UUP - stuck in strong resistance and support...intraday bounce came from this


VIX - prob test support again


NYMO - bearish i think

2/24 - stage 3b

2m: side


SPX - rangebound i think


SPY - stage 3 again


XLF - maybe 2x top? well above 30ema now


JJC - right range but below 30ema


UUP - in a range...still think it will fall eventually


VIX - sideways...


NYMO - got a bounce...should go lower...but possible to sidetrend first

2/23 - stage 4a

2m: bearish


SPX week, resistance from very old trendline matches today's reversal


SPX - first down day in a long time..reversal or holds in trendline?


SPY - below 30ema...should go lower


XLF - fell hard...should go lower...maybe a bounce because sold off so hard today


UUP - dollar strong was a very bearish sign today...


JJC - copper showed the bear's hand yesterday


VIX - able to confirm 2x bottom and should be able to go higher


NYMO - confirmed reversal today...now we wonder if it will fall down as fast as it went up


ETFs - safety best, and momentum worse...bearish

• feeling pretty bearish from looking at so many charts
• i just always feel weird when so many signals so bearishness
• the trendline should not be able to hold as support but always tough to believe that market will quietly go lower without a nice fight as we went up so strong lately
• dollar will be key imo
  

Chart: 2004 vs Now

DJIA 2004


SPX 2004


this is from another blogger's post from: http://slopeofhope.com/2010/02/the-2004-analog.html

definitely interesting...and i think there is a very good chance we will move like 2004...uncanny thus far how perfectly aligned the charts are

2/22 - stage 2a

Pred - bearish side


SPX - 61% fib holds with a doji...


SPY - tight range and very close to being under 30ema..bearish diverging oscillators


RKH - resistance that hit SPX hard at the close? but still a bullish day for financials


UUP - below 30ema but still in a range...looks likely to be bullish as well as bearing


VIX - near a 2x bottom...didn't have a complete break of last support...held up strong today


NYMO - big reversal signal...


ETFs - financials vs energy..lets see who will give way first?

• hard to say where we go next...
• mcclellan sure looks downright bearish though...definitely seems late to buy long but time to exit out of longs was today? hard to say...
• financials holding strong is biggest bull signal out there...don't think market can collapse without financials going back under 30ema
• therefore, tomorrow will either be a huge drop in financials or a fall of VIX and UUP which will mean we might have one more push higher before fall
  

2/19 - stage 2b

Pred: bullish...dollar is bear signal

SPX weekly - thinking higher then lower


SPX - 61% retrace and prior strong important level


SPY - healthy bullish


UUP - new high..bearish signal


UUP 30, good pop then closing gap but holding at 30ema...where to nexT?


Copper - leading indicator as its a commodity of economic growth...bullish