Rino: Week of Dec.31 ~ Jan.4 Outlook

The market is currently : Bullish Neutral

If the Dow finishes the week...

a) up 100+ pts, market will remain bullish to bullish neutral

b) down less than 100 pts, market will be bearish neutral

c) down 200+ pts, market will then be bearish

Short term trades favored over Long term trades in this environment.

Rino: Week of Dec.24~Dec.28 Outlook

Here's a look at how the coming week may play out.

There will be 3.5 trading days in this week.
Expect lower volume.
However, as a chartist, I can't put any less value on the closing prices for the days this week.

The market is BULLISH at the moment.

During the week if...

DIA closes the week above Dec.7th close (approx. 136), The Bulls will enjoy the run.

DIA closes the week below Dec.14th close (approx. 133), The Bears may take over.

With the DIA currently at 134.34, the market can swing in either direction very easily.

If this reading of mine is of any use, I will use it to gauge the general market tendencies and not for my trading purposes. My trading strategy shall remain very short term for the forseeable future.

Simon: Quick Look at the Markets

i've been away from the markets for a few days and to my shock, i see that we are in a very bullish upswing once the lows from august were met on the SPX and DJIA...based on a quick runthrough of the index charts and also some of my favorite stocks, i think that this runup is about over. volume is of main concern to me. any reversal on low volume has a high probability of failure. maybe tomorrow's fed meeting will bring great news to the bulls causing a huge influx in volume. if that happens, my view will change. but as for now, i am bearish. despite the public's overwhelming belief that interest rates will indeed be cut tomorrow, i have major suspicions about it. based on my analysis of the news and what mr. bernanke should do, i feel that the fed will cut 0.25 percentage points but with very bearish comments that will drop the market. that is likely and also a non-cut is likely. the dollar is the priority of the fed. for them to move based on the stock market is stupid and not part of their duty. pisses me off to see the fed into the stock market's business. first it was greenspan's idiotic moves, now its dumbass bernanke. when will they wise up and stop fucking with the market and let it collapse and recover by itself, instead of dragging in amateur stockpickers to lift up the market with news of rate cuts. don't know if bush fucks up the country more or the fed.

Simon: Market View

i think that the dow and SPX will continue to show weakness. QQQQ can follow their lead but i am betting that big cap tech is going to have a rally soon and bring up the rest of the markets. this is pure speculation based on my chart research. i suggest parting your money between bull and bear positions with more leaning towards the bear. sectors that will bring down the market will be financials and leaders if there is a turkey day rally will be from the tech. i suggest playing those two sectors if u are to play the market at all. transportation is also quite oversold and can get pulled down hard if the overall market continues showing weakness....good luck!

Simon: Good Days be Bad?

its one of the hardest things for people to understand, this concept of feeling like shit when every position on the portfolio gained. to everyone but the trader, it sounds purely like greed and bragging. but to the trader, its definitely something to be pissed off about. i definitely feel that way today.

i'll first explain by complaining about today's situation. market started off strong. well...fairly strong. seemed like a very short term bottomed might have formed. i felt this way going into the weekend and wanted much to sell 1/2 to 75% of my best performing positions on friday or on a gap up today. i decided to hold off selling on friday and instead decided that today would be good to take some profits, diversify, and take less risk in the portfolio. this is a new strategy for me that i have always preached is best for trading but never exercised...i want to sell into strength and let profits run with the other half or quarter position while looking for new trades elsewhere. all went well as i sold some position early in the day. then all of a sudden...towards the last 2 hours of trading, the market showed weakness especially in QQQQ and everything tanked. GOOG, VMW, FLR....great picks...some in my portfolio that should have been bought for puts or held if owned. so in the end...i made up my losses from the last few weeks but would have added another 10% to each of my portfolios if i had not touched anything today. i am trying to understand this lesson. in the end...i played it well...i have less risk...i still have a portion of my strongest assets, and good amount of cash to buy in more on a pullback or if new positions look good.

here is my situation...

VMW: bought, 3.86. sold, 8, last trade, 12.10 - difference of 4.10
FLR: bought, 7.06. sold 11.20, last trade, 13.70 - difference of 2.50
GRMN: bought, 8. sold, 6.3, last trade 7.80 - difference of 1.50
FXI: bought, 8.20, sold 6.20, last trade 9.92 - difference of 3.70

fuck!...if i was at school all day...profits would have been 11.80 more...$1180....horrible!


i'm mad and i'm pissed. i've always said that its worse to lose out on potential gains than to lose money in the market. i wanna get out there and make more money...i am kicking myself hard for selling so early...the trades were made for a day like today...it was handed to me and i was dumb enough not to take it...

new strategies to try to deal with the problem

1. buy in on a position before selling off an existing one.
2. for FXI, don't worry about volume...bid and ask is strong enough to make money
3. don't sell 75% of position. sell 50% if trade is still strong, which is most of them unless the overall market's trend is reversing.
4. when things are good...exploit it...at least wait til end of day to sell.
5. let it slide. be happy about having gains. thats the main goal anyway....mission accomplished...one day at a time
6. most importantly...look forward...look for the next big trade...so i will be even more pissed tomorrow...

"the market is like gambling to some...but to me, its a totally different monster. much crazier...much harder...and much more reliant on emotions. i give any consistently successful trader much respect."

note: i wanted to delete the numbers on this blog because i shouldn't think about it...its the past...future numbers are much more important...but i will leave it there..for moral reasons and for good bookkeeping..not so it can haunt and bother me forever...and into making bad trades...side note...one of the best things i ever did was stop making a journal of my wins and losses. keeping too close an eye on the past is bad...learn what u can and move on...

Rino: Market Outlook

What a day!

As much as I was tempted to switch my call positions earlier today, I held on, hoping for my read to be correct. Of course, the hindsight is always 20/20 so it's easier to come out and talk now. Nonetheless, with a confirmation tomorrow morning, I have high confidence in the pattern that I found in the market.

The retracement that started in the middle of October was reminiscent of the retracement that began in the middle of July. In fact, you can almost say that these two retracements are like twins because they resemble each other so much.

Taking the DJIA for example, back in July...

the first leg down - took 2 weeks; dropped 900pts
the second leg bounce - took 1 week; gained 550pts
the third leg down - took 1 week; dropped 1100pts; then a short term bottom was formed

entire retracement took 4 WEEKS & dropped by 1500pts

Now we turn to October...

the first leg down - took almost 2 weeks; dropped 800pts
the second leg bounce - took a little over 1 week; gained 550pts
the third leg down - took 1 week (marks TODAY); dropped 900 pts

entire retracement took 4 WEEKS & dropped by 1100pts

Now, for each leg, the retracement in Oct shows slightly more bullishness than the July counterpart. Add to this the formation of a candlestick with a long tail & small body that occurred today, which is also visible at the bottom in August. Lastly, the third leg took exactly 6 days before forming the bottom back in August. Today marked the 6th day from the start of this third leg down.

All in all, I am calling for a short term bottom here today. It is still a trading market so picking the right stocks will work regardless of whether it's a call or a put. However, I expect to watch the market rebound from here, and it'll be important to note whether this rise can take out the previous high on the last day of Oct. Failing to do so will provoke another massive drop.

Beyond that my guess is as good as yours. Hold onto your calls on the stocks that led the market. Alternative energy stocks, commodities, and big name techs are still good here for the call. One darkhorse could be the financials, most notably Goldman Sachs, to make a fast temporary rebound.

Simon: admitting fault

10 minutes before the market close and instead of having gains, i am taking fat losses. as i feared most, i bought in at the bottom of the day. the market, mainly financials have recovered strong from its lows. i should have held what i had and would have been happy now. today is a big lesson that shows that intraday trades are bad. only closing prices are worth marking on the technical charts. crazy wicked market. fuck fuck fuck! definitely best to wait for the last 30 minutes of the day to make trades. traders are too crazy.