10/24 - Market Analysis

SPX
- no reason to go long yet...
- breakdown..short!


NDX
- same thing...it broke down...off its lows and with light volume but a breakdown in a bear market is very much reason to expect more downside move than upside



RKH
- should keep falling til its 52 week lows

XLF
- at 52 week lows with the candle body
- might pose an area of support, but technically, we should expect this support to fail


USO
- downward channel is strong as hell...
- hold onto shorts in oil and shorts in SPX for dear life...
- as long as channel stays, any bottom pickers in stocks and oil will get slaughtered


VIX
- i was wrong...it brokeout instead of breaking down
- candle shows that this might still be a top..but as the trend is strong and up, just respect the breakout until it can close below the support


A/D
- consistent numbers to show a weak market...only thing is the volume in the NYSE is not so bearish....hmm...this is the most bullish thing i see in all these pictures




Analysis: Trend is down...no doubt about it...and since that is the case, any optimism brought on by psychological and fundamental or even astrological analysis should be discounted...with a stop above the breakdown level, and a bearish portfolio, you are set up for what the market is telling us. technically, friday brought out more reasons to be bearish, not bullish...trade accordingly...and good luck...don't respect the news or earnings as technicals are the most honest...

Sectors:

best - gdx, uup, gld (slv, smh, xlb)
worst - fxi, eem, kol, uga, xme, uso

as in the charts, asian stocks are doing the worst...i would think these would be the best candidates to short...while all energy are also game for shorting since oil continues to be at the bottom. relative strength with gold and gdx makes for a good calls to hedge shorts but i would not think these will be leaders if we are to rally...definitely they are more safety plays for the market in a downturn..