Simon: Worst Picks for 1/28/08

SNDK (long)....huge mistake. semiconductors lead the market down and will lead the market lower. the earnings are out monday after market close and i am very confident that their numbers and future guidance will be weak. DO NOT BUY SNDK!

CME (long)....hitting a very strong resistance point at 640 on a gravestone candle that was formed on friday. i am actually looking for an opportunity to get short on CME. the market hits the exchanges very hard, and with recession not going away soon, i see very little strength in any of the exchanges, especially cme. SHORT, SHORT, SHORT!!

Rino: How to Lose Money

The wrong pick of the day for tomorrow:

short FCX

Tech market should be strong.
Market in general should finish in the green.
So shorting would be the obvious choice in heading to the opposite direction.

Simon: Worst Pick - BIDU (short)

the worst pick for tomorrow would be a short on BIDU. it is the leader of tech. with msft's strong earnings and strength coming from most of the oversold largecap companies, i find it unlikely for BIDU to fall tomorrow. In fact, i see it building strength and going up. DON'T short BIDU tomorrow!

Rino: Week of Jan.7 ~ Jan.11 Outlook

The market is currently : Bearish

If the Dow finishes the week...

a) down, market will remain bearish

b) up 400+ pts, market will be neutral

c) anything in between, market will be bearish neutral

Bearish sentiment rules the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop followed by another round of violent sell offs.

Simon: Good Riddance 2007

As an old year ends and a new year begins, its a great time for me to say goodbye to miserable 2007. actually fuck 2007. financially it was the WORST year of my life. Down 2779 in one account and 1112 in another for a grand total of 3891 of fucking losses for the whole of 2007. what a waste of time and effort. dollar amount wise compared to the market, an amount under 4000 is nothing but a lil hiccup to the average trader, but to me, it is huge. it brings me into debt. about 2500 to owe to family, friends, and the honorable credit card companies. Shit...what is someone in my position to say? I can lie and say that i can't wait til next year where i will make shitloads of money and will look back at 2007 and laugh...or i can even say that i can always get a job and pay off all that easily. i can even say that i did well since i didn't lose much compared to how much i could have lost in the market. or i can be optimistic and say that i learned a lot this year, much more than i would have learned if i had made money. but all that is crap...all excuses...all shit i hear friends say and shit that i hear myself weaseling out of my mouth every now and then. But now is not the time to make excuses. When the year ends...on this non-trading day, its time to fess up and take responcibility for the past year. I fucked up! I was too optimistic and and unready for the market. It was not the market's fault nor anyone else's fault. The market is supposed to be unpredictable and dangerous, and in 2007, it surely did not dissapoint. It was the trader's fault. It is always the trader's fault. It is me. I was not ready. I did not understand the market and my trading emotions. I made careless plays, got extremely greedy at times and maybe times awfully scared and fearful. I listened to the cnbc gurus like the fast money group, cramer, and top notch portfolio managers. I got caught up in gambling situations and went into trades without price targets and exit strategies. all year long, i only saw the gold at the end of the rainbow. Fixed on the prize, i left myself open to many blindspots. I didn't care to hear the voice of the market. I only heard the voices of greed. I was overly confident. I knew that if i lose some, i would just make it back later. I bought into the idea that losing trades are ok and that i was an excellent trader. I had streaks of huge winning and even bigger streaks of bad trades. I compared myself to other traders to make my losses seem smaller. I have to admit that i started 2007 knowing nothing about trading. At the time, i didn't think so, but looking back, i really did know nothing. I was just another hopeful trader with big wishes to be rediculously rich so that i can one day buy condos in every hotspot in the world, save the planet alongside the likes of angelina jolie and brad pitt, spread riches to help friends and the less fortunate, and be the ultimate icon like warren buffett. Everybody has these dreams, and many get too carried away with wanting to achieve the goal than spending time and effort to improve the process which is ultimately more important. I talked myself into believing that i was different. That i had an edge. That i was reading the right books and looking at the correct charts. I knew in my mind that i would be the special one and not be just another of the 95% of traders out there that lose to the S&P. I did not take advantage of the huge bull rally in the entire 1st half of 2007 and i did not hold back and play it safe during the rough riding days of the trendless market starting in august and still occuring now. I played earnings because i felt that i could predict the future. I took vacations on borrowed money because i knew that my trades would work out. I even left many trades open without tracking them for days at a time. I was lazy with the market and covered my eyes with my blankets when the market didn't go my way. I was definitely not doing my part of the work. And well. i paid for it. I can now say that my new years resolution is to fix these flaws and to come back in 2008 trading at my prime but i would be lying. All i can say that is that i will never stop learning about the market and trying to improve my strategies. I can vow that i will never give up. And i can say that i will use 2007 as a learning experience in the upcoming year. I hope to do much better and have no losing weeks. that is my goal. my goal is to be more consistant and get in when risk is low with reward being high and get out when things look confusing.


I can i can, i wish i wish...words are just words...effort and work pay off in riches, but only if it is done right. i can say all i want and wish for eveything i need, but how much of that matters and helps pay the bills? NONE of it! 2007...gone!