5/29 - Market Analysis

SPX - bullish but near resistance


SPY - more bullish


RKH - need confirmation


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs


HEAT


Analysis: quite a bullish day...broke out of the consolidation range made by the triangle...which is definitely much more bullish than bearish...what i don't know is whether resistance holds and we are still back in the rectangle consolidation pattern or whether we are going higher, validating the symmetrical triangle pattern i noted yesterday...either way, the bulls are definitely are more in control than the bears...even my chart scans showed many more bullish setups than bearish...

5/28 - Market Analysis

SPX - side but maybe bullish flag forming


SPY - symmetrical (bullish) triangle


RKH - side


VIX - side


ETFs


HEAT - financials very impressive


Analysis: seems destined to just flow sideways until we break out of this pattern...very likely to get a false break today that might just break for reals on monday if we get a super weak volume day tomorrow...this real breakout should have good volume and emotion...anything less is probably just a headfake put on by day traders...

5/27 - Market Analysis (stage 3c)

SPX - side


SPY - side


COMPQ - side


RKH - support at light volume


USO - bullish divergence


VIX - finding suport?


ETFs - important sectors lagged


HEAT - first time in a long time where EVERY sector down, even safety sectors


Analysis: ok...as for the fall today, that was pretty evident to anybody watching the shorter term charts...the resistance was very clear but the fall definitely happened faster and was stronger than i expected...the smart guys prob sold right at the top and shorted it on the way down...tomorrow, a bullish scenario would be a pop up giving us a very short term higher low, but more likely that we will fall more tomorrow and straddle support...might even sit on it with a very boring day friday...then next week i think is where we will try to make some bigger directional moves...volume definitely is too light to move in one direction for longer than a few days...USO is kind of making me feel that i might just get surprised by the bulls soon...

5/26 - Market Analysis

SPX - side


SPY - side


COMPQ - side


RKH - up


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs


HEAT - important sectors rally


Analysis: overall, it seems like we will just trade sideways these next few trading sessions...so either u just stock pick for the best trades for a trade that might last a day or 2 at best...or u just hang around waiting for us to breakout...problem is that the breakout might take longer than a few days as we are now in summer...the time when traders take it easy and volume decreases...

5/22 - Market Analysis (stage 1)

SPX Weekly - resistance


SPX - support


SPY 30 - side


RKH - support


UUP - support


VIX - resistance


ETFs


HEAT - money out of financials and confused in other sectors


Analysis: Confusion i think is the main theme...feel that we will just go sideways these next couple days unless we somehow get a surprise and shoot below support. Looks more likely that after this consolidation phase that we will go lower but for now, its still very tough to step in front and short the hell out of the market as we still haven't made a lower low yet...

5/21 - Market Analysis

SPX - tough support ahead


SPY - dunno if we can break down here...more likely rebound tomorrow


RKH - hella strong support


RKH 30 - if bounces, we will most likely sidetrend a few days


VIX - still downtrending...needs atleast a 2x bottom before reversal


ETFs - financials strong..bad for bears


HEAT - whats with financials?


Analysis: dunno why financials doing better...but i can see why it is more bullish than bearish...if the bulls cannot even push down the financials, how much chance do they have of having a sustainable downtrend? i don't see it...they led the strong last minute rally today to end positive on the day...more than likely that SPX will follow this tomorrow and post a gain...depending on the strength of the move up, we might be heading for further bearishness or just sidetrend...very unlikely to resume the uptrend...

5/20 - Market Analysis (stage 4a)

SPX - start of the fall?


SPY - short term head and shoulders


SPY - possible support


RKH - lower high possible here


VIX - held off support on a closing basis


ETFs - financials worst


HEAT


Analysis: overall, the intraday move and the possible lower high looks very bearish...but for some reason, i feel like i am too bearish...RKH fell under its 30min EMAs which is bearish but SPY and QQQQ are holding up strong...still keeping its uptrend line actually...so i wonder what will happen tomorrow...i definitely have many more short setups in my watchlist than long setups....usually its a good indicator of whats to come...but i definitely should resist from getting too bearish until we get a confirmation that we have a lower high...and for that, we need support to breakdown on big volume...if that happens tomorrow, i won't hold back any bearishness...but for now, i am scared to committ my stance to 100% bear...in actuality, we might still go back up tomorrow to shake out some people and retest the highs before even falling down again...

5/19 - Market Analysis

SPX - getting closer to a 2x top


SPY - late day selloff means little


RKH - 2x top looking good here too


VIX - new lows..but now on support


ETFs - financials lag...tech and materials strong


HEAT - overall its random except the down in financials


Analysis: ok..light volume as we continue to try to reach the old high...makes sense with my guess that we can get a 2x top.....but when looking at VIX, i think its possible that we just start and making a lower high as soon as tomorrow...definitely feels like nobody but suckers are chasing this rally...BUT of course, there are no certainties and definitely no confirmed technical signals that we will head lower before heading higher again...definitely watch RKH and QQQQ to get an idea of where we might go next...