In dwelling, be close to the land.
In meditation, go deep in the heart.
In dealing with others, be gentle and kind.
In speech, be true.
In ruling, be just.
In business, be competent.
In action, watch the timing.
-Lao Tsu
Monday, May 19, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Brian, Unsettled funds?
WTF is this? I'm being told that the money I receive from selling stocks can be used to purchase new stocks, but I'm restricted from selling for 3 business days? Tradeking and Scottrade do the same damn thing. What the hell is this? Industry standard?
Am I that dumb to have never heard of this? Isn't anyone else bothered by this? Money's being held for 3 days without getting interest. I'm supposedly free to purchase stocks, but I'm held down from selling for 3 days. WTF is up with that?
Unsettled funds my arse.
Am I that dumb to have never heard of this? Isn't anyone else bothered by this? Money's being held for 3 days without getting interest. I'm supposedly free to purchase stocks, but I'm held down from selling for 3 days. WTF is up with that?
Unsettled funds my arse.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Simon: Tops in Commodities Stocks???
the big debate of late is the commodities. Many speculate that the top is forming, some are out, some are still long, some are already short. in this post, we will try to figure out what is truly going on. we'll break it down into sectors or research...
fundamentals (news) - the fed slowed down with rate cuts with a mere 25 basis point cut and a slight revision of their statement to make it more likely that maybe there will be no more rate cuts in the near future...this was of course a sign that the dollar will strengthen...negative for commodities....also in the news is that EU banks are still very weak, if not weaker than us (i have no idea why unless they were stupid enough to buy our subprime mortgage backed bonds too) therefore the EU will probably start lowering interest rates which would give the dollar strength compared to the Euro...another negative for commodities....score so far, 2 -0 bears....
technicals (on commodity ETFs not the equities) - USO, UNG, GLD, SLV DBA to be exact...USO is at new highs and a 2x top can be forming but no confirmation..trendlines are strong and MAs are strong as well...no divergence in oscillators either....UNG is the same way...in a very strong uptrend and no confirmed double top or any other topping patterns confirmed...DBA + SLV...they guys have fairly much topped. back in early march 2x tops formed and confirmed...soon after trendlines broke and MA's (8, 21, 34) crossed negatively...in all this we saw oscilator divergence too...it was a classic topping...textbook technically...GLD...this is more complicated...it kinda just fell...no topping pattern...was first a trendline break, then a huge fall, then a 50% failed retracement and down it went for the next couple months...looking at these..i would propose that USO and UNG are still in an uptrend and not topping off yet. sidenote...with the fall of GLD, we had beautiful topping charts on NEM, ABX, GG, and other gold related names
technicals (on commodity equity stocks) - as seen from GLD, SLV, and DBA, a technical pattern, trendline break, or oscillator bearish divergence should be shown before a true top can be called....when looking at the most noticeable and popular equities out there (slb, oih, fcx, pot, mos, apa, pcu, aci, chk, and hes), we have none of those...i would give this 1 point to the bulls...score 2-1 bears lead....another thing with the technicals is that these stocks are actually in a strong uptrend...in terms of trendfollowing, not prediciting tops and bottoms, i would have to say that the trend favors the bulls....score...2 -2 tied...side note: the only topping charts i remember lately are the ones of the china stocks late last year and the solar plays with the exponential rise and major fall....they fell very hard and very fast....but they too had topping price patterns...look at STP, SNP, YGE, and LDK...all fell strong but with 2x and 3x tops and and confirmations...hard to beelive that AG and MEtals can fall that hard from here without atleast a 2x top...possible...but not very probable
technicals ($usd) - the dollar has definitely found strong support between 70-73 and the MA's are even crossing to the upside...but the current push up is finding some resistance and will most likely need to pullback down near the lows to gain enough strength to break past 74...and until i see that, i am still a buyer of AG, energy, and Metals...
trader's mindset - best is to be where the smart money is and not where the stupid money goes...so lets try to figure them out...smart money...these guys look down the road...a long time...they don't get out at tops and don't buy early before patterns are confirmed...AG, energy, and metals has been the bright spots...they have the huge international demand and have been making money from this goverment's policies...they are still in solid uptrends...so i predict that the smart money is waiting for a topping pattern confirmation to sell...until we have that...i think its best not to sell...score for bulls....3-2 bulls....and the stupid money? well they try to outsmart the market by predicting tops and bottoms dozens of times in a trend...they are often too early in and too late out...they hear of the dollar's strength on cnbc (dollar play is like the most aired story in the past 3 weeks...crazy how much we hear about it...every analyst gets asked about it everyday) and see that based on the news that commodities is over and a bust in the bubble will occur soon...can be true and busts are definitely in the future but his actions to short sound more like greed (with trying to predict tops and being the 1st shorter) and fear (trying to take profits at an unconfirmed top in fears that in 1 day the stock will drop 30 % and wipe him out)...at times where 2x tops can be formed is where panicked ppl lurk...for the smart money, i bet they are calm and waiting for a confirmation...for the stupid money, they are about to short if they haven't already...in that case...another point to the bulls ...score 4-2...think about this...in the past few days that seem technically like the forming of a bullish flag in many of the commodity equities, there has not been mass hysteria with stupid money buying every equity like crazy...i see heavy volume buying in 30 minute candles...not mad rushes of volume scattered throughout...and everyday they seem to target a different stock...it smells like smart money out there buying up the stocks more than stupid money...only a guess though...
final verdict...4-2...bulls...remember that anything can happen...as a trendfollower, i am still favoring the upside until the technicals turn and say otherwise...other traders, whether fundamental or top and bottom predictors will most likely follow the foot steps of many of the analysts on cnbc and go in short....its all a matter of preference....i just have seen too many times when stocks and sectors are knocked down time and time again by analyst and speculation of tops to only make new highs and a new higher leg up...
fundamentals (news) - the fed slowed down with rate cuts with a mere 25 basis point cut and a slight revision of their statement to make it more likely that maybe there will be no more rate cuts in the near future...this was of course a sign that the dollar will strengthen...negative for commodities....also in the news is that EU banks are still very weak, if not weaker than us (i have no idea why unless they were stupid enough to buy our subprime mortgage backed bonds too) therefore the EU will probably start lowering interest rates which would give the dollar strength compared to the Euro...another negative for commodities....score so far, 2 -0 bears....
technicals (on commodity ETFs not the equities) - USO, UNG, GLD, SLV DBA to be exact...USO is at new highs and a 2x top can be forming but no confirmation..trendlines are strong and MAs are strong as well...no divergence in oscillators either....UNG is the same way...in a very strong uptrend and no confirmed double top or any other topping patterns confirmed...DBA + SLV...they guys have fairly much topped. back in early march 2x tops formed and confirmed...soon after trendlines broke and MA's (8, 21, 34) crossed negatively...in all this we saw oscilator divergence too...it was a classic topping...textbook technically...GLD...this is more complicated...it kinda just fell...no topping pattern...was first a trendline break, then a huge fall, then a 50% failed retracement and down it went for the next couple months...looking at these..i would propose that USO and UNG are still in an uptrend and not topping off yet. sidenote...with the fall of GLD, we had beautiful topping charts on NEM, ABX, GG, and other gold related names
technicals (on commodity equity stocks) - as seen from GLD, SLV, and DBA, a technical pattern, trendline break, or oscillator bearish divergence should be shown before a true top can be called....when looking at the most noticeable and popular equities out there (slb, oih, fcx, pot, mos, apa, pcu, aci, chk, and hes), we have none of those...i would give this 1 point to the bulls...score 2-1 bears lead....another thing with the technicals is that these stocks are actually in a strong uptrend...in terms of trendfollowing, not prediciting tops and bottoms, i would have to say that the trend favors the bulls....score...2 -2 tied...side note: the only topping charts i remember lately are the ones of the china stocks late last year and the solar plays with the exponential rise and major fall....they fell very hard and very fast....but they too had topping price patterns...look at STP, SNP, YGE, and LDK...all fell strong but with 2x and 3x tops and and confirmations...hard to beelive that AG and MEtals can fall that hard from here without atleast a 2x top...possible...but not very probable
technicals ($usd) - the dollar has definitely found strong support between 70-73 and the MA's are even crossing to the upside...but the current push up is finding some resistance and will most likely need to pullback down near the lows to gain enough strength to break past 74...and until i see that, i am still a buyer of AG, energy, and Metals...
trader's mindset - best is to be where the smart money is and not where the stupid money goes...so lets try to figure them out...smart money...these guys look down the road...a long time...they don't get out at tops and don't buy early before patterns are confirmed...AG, energy, and metals has been the bright spots...they have the huge international demand and have been making money from this goverment's policies...they are still in solid uptrends...so i predict that the smart money is waiting for a topping pattern confirmation to sell...until we have that...i think its best not to sell...score for bulls....3-2 bulls....and the stupid money? well they try to outsmart the market by predicting tops and bottoms dozens of times in a trend...they are often too early in and too late out...they hear of the dollar's strength on cnbc (dollar play is like the most aired story in the past 3 weeks...crazy how much we hear about it...every analyst gets asked about it everyday) and see that based on the news that commodities is over and a bust in the bubble will occur soon...can be true and busts are definitely in the future but his actions to short sound more like greed (with trying to predict tops and being the 1st shorter) and fear (trying to take profits at an unconfirmed top in fears that in 1 day the stock will drop 30 % and wipe him out)...at times where 2x tops can be formed is where panicked ppl lurk...for the smart money, i bet they are calm and waiting for a confirmation...for the stupid money, they are about to short if they haven't already...in that case...another point to the bulls ...score 4-2...think about this...in the past few days that seem technically like the forming of a bullish flag in many of the commodity equities, there has not been mass hysteria with stupid money buying every equity like crazy...i see heavy volume buying in 30 minute candles...not mad rushes of volume scattered throughout...and everyday they seem to target a different stock...it smells like smart money out there buying up the stocks more than stupid money...only a guess though...
final verdict...4-2...bulls...remember that anything can happen...as a trendfollower, i am still favoring the upside until the technicals turn and say otherwise...other traders, whether fundamental or top and bottom predictors will most likely follow the foot steps of many of the analysts on cnbc and go in short....its all a matter of preference....i just have seen too many times when stocks and sectors are knocked down time and time again by analyst and speculation of tops to only make new highs and a new higher leg up...
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