6/30 - Market Analysis

Forecast: More bearish than bullish now...slightly


SPX - resistance...side


SPY - side


SPY 2 - bearish


COMPQ - 2x top? side


USO - 2x top? side


UNG - bearish breakdown


VIX - still bearish...resistance


ETFs - all red


HEAT - all red



Analysis: things turning more bearish...or to be exact, turning less bullish...several things have to happen to be fully bearish...SPX needs to break support and COMPQ needs to make a lower high or even high and fall lower and of course, VIX needs to find a bottom...the first of many possible bearish signals occured today which is the drop of UNG after a consolidation of the huge symmetrical triangle during the past few months...i view this as possibly the first real confirmation of bearishness to come...but very might well just drift sideways for another week before we get the indexes confirming bearishness

6/29 - Market Analysis

Forecast: 50/50 bullish bearish


SPX - side

SPY - tight range but still bullish


RKH - side

OIH - h+s?


USO - bullish but resistance


DBC - bullish like COMPQ


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs


HEAT - bullish mix


ISEE - bearish divergence


Analysis: i find myself stuck between bull and bear...charts are showing both bearish patterns as well as bullish continuation patterns...trend remains up so again its important to emphasize that current positions should be bullish despite having a good chance that the next big move will be a big reversal back down...basically, stay long but be ready for a reversal if it happens

6/26 - Market Analysis

Forecast - bullish picture is shaping up...but slowly


SPX - stage 3


SPY - slight bullish


COMPQ - bullish


RKH - side


UNG - side


VIX - SPX very bullish sign


A/D - bullish


ETFs



HEAT - mixed


Analysis: thinking the market is still confused but now leaning towards more bullishness before more bearishness. The most decided charts are COMPQ and VIX and they are decidedly bullish...other charts look bearish seen through my subjective eyes...so my unbiased opinion is that we are bullish at the moment...

R.I.P. Michael Jackson

The best male performer ever! Gone way too soon. Thank you for everything.

6/25 - Market Analysis

Forecast - bulls still confident...but bears are the real ones in control



SPX - weak volume on rally, H+S stage 3 top?


SPY - bullish


DJIA - stage 3


COMPQ - stage 2


RKH - stage 3 sidetrend


USO - stage 2 pullback


UNG - stage 1


UUP - stage 4 pullback


VIX - continuation of stage 4?


ETFs - tech lags...weird


HEAT - all green


Analysis: definitely having mixed signals here...in the very very short term, its better to go long...but by as soon as tomorrow and most likely next week, we got a good chance to break support yet again...going long QQQQ looks good here...shorting definitely best with commodities that are deeply in stage 4. bears should be worried about VIX and QQQQ, bulls should be worried about RKH and light volume

6/24 - Market Analysis (stage 1a)

SPX - bearish volume


SPY - trendline holding strong


QQQQ - stage 2 pullback?


QQQQ 30" - trendline here too


USO - stage 2 pullback...bullish


VIX - 30ma resistance


ETFs - tech leading


HEAT - bull mix


Analysis: charts are pointing up and down...in some places, we are just making stage 2 pullbacks before a resumption of the rally...but in other charts (many are in energy and materials), we are pulling back from a stage 3 breakdown getting ready to go much lower with little support...all i know is that the 30min downtrend line is going to be important..if it doesn't get broken, we are very bearish...if it does break though, the bears have little chance to break it down til a small pullback up is completed (for a possible head and shoulder's top in SPX and 2x top in USO and QQQQ)