Simon: Market Outlook

The market is really tricky right now. Gone are the days where you can pick any strong stock and know that it would be going up. We have had a great run and things have finally become more unpredictable. We can no longer go through our list of stocks and find 90% of them pointing towards the same direction (which of late was also going with the market, up!)...as i look at my list of about 200 stocks, i see about 55% being bearish and 35% bullish and 10% trendless. I have never been in a situation like this before. It comes to me everyday that it really matters what we pick and we can't rely on the market to tell us which direction most of the stocks will move. I think i have been too spoiled of late to realize that this is how the stock market really is. it is not just going straight with the market at times. at times like this, a trader has to adapt to the market and see opportunity for stocks heading in either direction. it takes a certain skill to spot the ones who will run or run down despite the message of the market. It is a time where stops and getting in after confirmation is crucial. at volatile times this these, it is seriously costly to predict tops and bottoms. we need confirmation and one eye on the stock at all times. be careful and have fun out there!

and for the record: i am slightly more bearish than bullish about the next 1/2 month to month because an increasing amount of the stocks on my list are forming diverging oscillators or double tops.

KEEP YOUR EYES on the PRIZE!