Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Bank Earnings

Wells Fargo: A+
  • Expectations were low and the short sellers were heavy on this stock. Then they release earnings that exceeded all expectations and they released it early to catch people by surprise. The reaction after its earnings was most certainly an A+.

Goldman Sachs: B-

  • WFC raised the bar a bit but the expectations were never really low for this company to start with. They reported strong numbers but the stock offering to raise money for paying gov back, gave investors a reason to take profits for now. It worries me to see them go through so much trouble to raise 10B dollars for paying back TARP. A few weeks ago, they talked about selling an asset to the chinese to raise the 10B, and now a stock offering to raise 5B. I'm guessing they don't have a lot of cash in reserve and/or have trouble selling their assets in the current market for a decent price.

JP Morgan: Thurs 4/16

  • JPM comes off to me as a steady company. They aren't too optimistic or pessimistic in their reports. However, they don't shy away from saying that times are tough and may report numbers that actually portray current market condition. In a time when market has gotten to be rather hopeful, JPM's approach may not help them come thursday morning. Projection: B-/C+

Citigroup: Fri 4/17

  • Citi's problems have been well documented for a long time now. I don't believe the expectations are very high for this stock. If they report surprisingly good numbers, I'd be skeptical of it. But if they report worse than expected numbers, I'll be more inclined to think that it's that much closer to its bottom than to start worrying again. So they are in a good position to report in line numbers on friday morning. One thing to note is that they are currently up over 7% while the rest of financial stocks are deep in losses. I do not know why but I thought it'd be worth mentioning. Projection: B+

Bank of America: Mon 4/20

  • BofA's been beaten down, much like C, but they haven't been humbled yet. Ken Lewis is still quite vocal in defending himself and the company against all accusations. I think their troubles are real and this stock would scare me the most if I was a shareholder. I don't trust the management and I wouldn't trust their numbers either. I'd just stay away. Projection: D

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