Thursday, May 20, 2010

5/20 - watchlist scan

  • huge reversal candle but stocks and market still deeply in the red
  • solar stocks are outperformers led by FSLR...actually about its 30ema on 30min charts
  • FXE getting a huge intraday bounce that moved the markets higher as well as many stocks...looks like a good short term long but retraced 50% of its most current leg down, so maybe that dead cat is already over
  • some good setups in the bank stocks...some still at the lows despite market rallying way off of lows...
  • heard lows of djia was as much as 350pts...at last check, djia was only down 250pts.
  • dollar flipping under 30ema and can be a good short
  • uso still under 30ema
  • NYMO should be super oversold now...wish i was able to get an intraday chart of it but can only guess its at the lows made on the 999pt drop day
  • hardest decision is what to do with shorts....to hold or take profit as market can bounce up huge tomorrow from oversold conditions
  • we've had so many bounces of the lows lately but always seems to just lead to another down day after...the volume still not cap yet...
  • feels like disbelief selling...similar to the rally up that came up despite feeling unsure...much disbelief...which means we can have many more down days to come despite oversold areas as not all ppl who want to sell have sold yet...
  • if u take out the candle tails, u can see that market will make another new low and no new support til much further away...as much as another 30pt or 3% down day in the SPX possible...
  • no great long setups at all..best ones are anticipating support such as FXE and solar names
  • some great short setups but tail is scary to look at...
  • tempted to go long more than short...but that feels just like trying to catch a falling knive...its dumb
bottom line:
  • market is still bearish despite strong tails off the bottom.
  • we are continuing to make new lows and therefore still safer to hold shorts than switch over to long positions...
  • euro is the most important catalyst to market movement lately but it might have already had its short term pullback in this one day
  • investors are in disbelief of the selloff and keep wanting to buy at "cheap" levels...similar to how they kept buying into the rally of the past year despite being way overbought...might cause the same continuous movement in stocks, just in the opposite direction

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