7/29 - bullish (buy stop)

• market is telling me that its risky to hold over the weekend...especially since this weekend should be the time when big strides are made in the debt ceiling talks...
• with a strong selloff leading up to this debt ceiling deadline, big surprise will definitely be to the upside not the downside...this means risk/ reward for bears is worse than bulls
• only shorts worth holding onto currently are those that are doing worse than spy in short term time frame...stronger stocks are very very dangerous
• VIX continues to hold strong and has a bullish triangle forming...
• last minutes of trading are now showing weakness in the markets, not strength.
• i can't see US defaulting on its debt...i will not be surprised to see an agreement made over the weekend with a huge rally in futures going into monday.
• house is voting right now on boehner's plan that is said to fail immediately in the senate if it passes the house...
• first time in several days that we are able to close nearer the highs than lows...but still a lateday selling campaign into the close...but today was less strong
• as cramer said, it feel like short sellers are covering shorts and taking profits ahead of the weekend debt ceiling debate...we have seen to many times over when the gov't does some big thing and causes a huge futures jump right after the weekend..and like other shorts, i prefer to be safe than sorry...

So monday sounds like a perfect time for an oversold bounce back to prior highs...many bears prepared for it today and many bulls have been on the sidelines patiently waiting for it...will it come? unsure, but many signs of evidence that its possible..and if it does, i definitely will jump in with both fists buying long with a loose stop

7/28 - bearish (sell stop)

News:

• some huge movers especially Green Mountain Coffee with more outperfomances in earnings announcements
• market strong, then mid day reversal that accelerated into the close
• debt ceiling still all the talk...GOP version expected to be rejected later tonight in the house

based on everything, we are still bearish but stops need to be tight as a reversal is definitely in the cards. bulls are waiting for good news to stomp out the bears and to take advantage of the oversold conditions but bears remain strong as nothing changes with the news...

7/27 - bullish (buy stop) OR bearish (sell stop)

Market looks ready to bounce...despite so much reason to be bearish from the last 2 days selloffs and still no sign of a debt ceiling agreement, i am feeling bullish after looking at the charts...so tomorrow is not a great time to go short and also a bad time to exit asap from a short position. think the best thing is to wait for the next great long setup...but if we continue to fall tomorrow and i see a good short setup, i would buy

7/26 - ???? (sell stop)

• DJIA again got hit from earnings..this time its 3m...and of course shows market weaker than it actually was
• day started weak and got strong, but then fell apart at the close, this is bearish
• but market is still holding up well despite reasons to selloff....think optimism is high because traders feel that this debt ceiling this is overblown and when its resolved, market will rally...but of course, if so many people believe this, its not a bad idea to bet against it
• tech was the leader
• steel stocks dropped like crazy...AKS down 17% after earnings, X down 8%
  

market strong, then selloff at the close...dow weaker, VIX and SPX charts showing weakness, but pulse of the market is still quite bullish with just a reserved pullback currently...again, i feel that its risky to go long or short...hate feeling this cautious but the market is not acting right...with 1 huge news piece looming over our heads, its just risky....and charts aren't confirming in any directions....so far, only confirmed moves are earnings surprises...outside of that, i was not even tempted to go long or short....

7/25 - bull + bear (sell stop)

• QQQ leader, XLF lags
• XLF took a big hip today..back below 30min EMA
• VIX jumped above EMA
• news still dominated by debt ceiling talks

Market feels like its waiting for debt ceiling talks to end as prices expect and then it can react to other news....for now though, with the big drop in the morning then a strong recovery the rest of the day, i think neither bulls nor bears have command...so even with a great setup confirmation, unless we get a resolution of debt ceiling causing a breakout move in the indexes, it is risky...but not still worth the risk in most cases

7/22 - cautious bull (sell stop)

• this past week's earnings was tech and financials...no coincidence that even with some dissapointments, they were the leadership groups...think for this earnings seasons, whichever group reports will outperform because expectations are so low
• next week is energy reporting...think they are the best of the bunch to buy
• i am undecided...if a good bullish setup pops up, i will be tempted to buy but unless market breaks to new highs, it is very risky...
• also, if short setup pops up, risky to short as the overall feel of the market seems to want to go higher esp as QQQ already went to new highs and same with XLU...as well as dollar breaking down
• overall, i think its better to be bullish than bearish but also need to keep a tight "sell stop" on either position as headline risk and news is plentiful in these coming days
  

Bullish

- NDX broke prior high
- leaders of last week has been energy, financials, and then tech....these are the biggest and most important sectors so this is a good thing...
- despite bad CAT earnings which is usually a very important stock, market was unfazed except for the djia and tech just kept trotting higher
- much talk about debt ceiling being scary and the end of america...but investors shrugged that off too all day able to hold ground.
- any day now, a debt ceiling agreement should be met, and when that happens, it should give a good to investors

Bearish

- DIA fell big vs other indexes and still below its strong resistance (said because CAT earnings)

- utilities dropped

- RKH at prior resistance as well
- europe got its bailout for greece yet market will not rejoice like the rest of the world.

7/21 - bullish (hold)

Bullish

- XLU has a nice cup and handle while other etfs have a funny looking sym triangle

- financials are outperformers with earnings better than expected atleast in terms of stock performance reaction, probably because of MS earnings

- utilities at new high

- NYMO middle and oversold SS

- despite fears on debt ceiling, market made nice bullish candle that means the street doesn't care

- UUP bearish breakdown of sym triangle

- VIX still weak

- XLF already has a greater than 61.8% retrace

Bearish

- DIA right at prior high...exact point when zoomed into 30min chart

- if we get more complications with debt ceiling agreement, market can overreact and reverse in a hurry

- banks already moved a lot...and when they are weak..so they might be overbought already

• if not for the big move in banks and news, i would leave the stop nice and wide for longs...
• but with headline risk, safer with "hold" stop...but definitely not time for a "sell stop"

7/20 - bullish (sell stop)

• financials leaders
• despite good reason for a good day (yesterday's rally, aapl's earnings), we stay slightly negative most of the day
• news emphasized how gang of 6 plan is not going as smoothly through congress as previously planned

bullish

- XLF led and now above EMA on 60min

- VIX fell again and now 2nd day in a row below 60min ema

- despite sideways action today, 60min charts of indexes still bullish

bearish

- market unable to grab a nice gain even with AAPL's good earnings and strong futures

- indexes closed at the lows of the day

- market basically just traded sideways

7/19 - bullish (buy stop)

- financials reported...BAC + GS dissapoint, WFC surprises up

- AAPL to report after the bell

- debt ceiling compromise is near as "gang of 6" gives a proposal, said to easily pass - gave strong boost intraday for 2nd leg up

- TECH leads

- IBM and KO earnings were good giving a boost to morning futures

- best day in dow and qqq in months

- no talk of europe debt

Bullish
- 30min charts reversed to the upside
- NYMO ready to turn over as SS is oversold and we are near oversold as well
- 1st strong day that held up in weeks
- big candle that engulfs are small prior action making for a great signal that we can be starting a new leg up
- if go up, we got lots of room to move up before any resistance

Bearish
- as today we flipped asap just because of news, we can get more bad news that switches everything up all over again

7/18 - bearish (hold stop)

• GLD continues to rise
• after the bell IBM again beats expectations and rises after hours
• again, stocks slide intraday but able to stay off lows by eod
• news is same stuff....europe bank crisis
• financials by far the weakest sector...
• SPY breaks down in 30min chart and at EOD, is hugging that breakdown level...
• some oversold levels seen in NYMO
• many banks + financial big names report earnings tomorrow

Market keeps trying to show strength and that does scare me as i am holding a put position but nothing really bullish yet overall....we still have lower lows and as we broke down more today and was unable to capitalize on any of the strong earnings yet and keep having weak intraday actions despite some promising eod relief rallies, i think its definitely better to stay bearish and leave some room as we are more likely to go lower from here, especially the financials....what does worry me most is how financials report tomorrow and since they have been so battered lately, expectations are so low that any kind of upbeat surprise will make the market surge which is horrible for my position

7/15 - ???? (sell stop)

• google got huge earnings giving early pop in futures, but soon after, market lower...
• despite closing well off the lows at the eod with a nice pop late in the day, we still in a sidetrend even on the very short term 10min chart
• reversal daily candles on several charts such as XLF
• market indicators no longer oversold or overbought so can go either way....
• energy well out-performed other sectors, guessing because of buyout of one of the companies (pretrohawk)
• dollar looks ready to go higher which is bearish...but nothing is confirmed
• financials continue to be laggards especially big names but still closed WAY off the lows of the day

overall, i think the market is still up in the air...got reversal candles on some of the index charts but doesn't mean that anything is confirmed...we can easily fall monday and if that happens, we are still bearish, waiting for confirmation...but if rally, then a great time to go long as it has a good chance to continue...so keep stops tight and eyes glued on the watchlists ready to go long

7/14 - bearish (sell stop)

• close at lows yet again, 4th day in a row now!
  
• higher futures led to even open but in the end only the featured stocks (jpm, cop) that were in the news made a good gain
• fell out of small 30min consolidation range, bearish
• supposedly, market fell because of bernanke comments hinting that qe3 is not going to happen
• afterhours 10%+ gain in google as it reports very very good earnings...knocks the ball off its cover!
• have a feeling tomorrow we will again have strong futures based on earnings and other news, but in the end, only the stocks in the news get strong move....

market now has a strong pullback...SPX at 50%, DIA and QQQ at 38% and XLF > 61%, IWM >38%...if bullish, feel its ready to buy back and normalize this correction...if bearish, i would look at the weakness of the market after good news and strong earnings...so in my opinion, its still bearish until proven otherwise...and that means atleast 1 day where we can close near the highs and not have a strong late day selloff...

7/13 - side (sell stop)

• selloff eod after markets up as much as 160....today, SPY even went negative
• VIX kept rising all day despite spike at the open
• VIX still in range
• despite market weakness, later in the day, we got a doji...not so bad...just indecision
• 30 min charts of indexes broke above 60ema and now straddling it...means we have a nearterm possible bottom
• after the close, moody's hinted that it will downgrade america's debt if it cannot raise the debt ceiling which dropped futures
• despite not a huge gain, we did register a gain in the dow which stops the losing streak

overall i think we have as high a chance to go higher as much as lower...but i am slightly favoring higher...sure, we have real problems in the world now with the european debt crisis and america's debt ceiling, but the market is not losing control yet...if i was still holding a short, i would still feel fine but with a tight "sell stop"....and either direction with a good setup will be good as it should start the next leg...today is harder to choose the direction, but a big move in either direction tomorrow will decide where the market is going next

7/12 - bearish (sell stop)

• opened way off lows from the futures from europe's debt crisis...more specifically failure of a few italian banks to pass the stress test
• morning story was that ECB was going to buy Italian bonds which was never confirmed...
• FED minutes hinted at a possible QE3 if jobs numbers were bad (which they were) and gave a quick small spike in the market
  
• during last 30min, moody's downgraded ireland's debt to junk which dropped the market...
• market closed right at its lows as it broke down from its consolidation range throughout the day (tight range most of the day)
• NYMO right at 0 now, so no longer overbought...
  

I feel that the market is weak but not very weak...judging from most charts, we are still at a healthy pullback so i would keep stops tight on any shorts and still would not go long yet...but if we get a move down tomorrow with some nice setups, i would go short without much hesitation...so my verdict is bearish, but stop at "sell"

7/11 - hold

Bullish
- from the very lows prior to the current leg up, we retraced 38%...if this level holds, we can easily jump up again as these 2 days of selloff can be seen as healthy
- not any new events that dropped us today...just same talk about europe debt crisis
- after the bell, AA reported and it was in line with expectations which is more good than bad for the market
- technology still holding stronger than DIA and SPX

Bearish
- market did not get a huge kick up eod...stayed near lows of the day
- way overbought so we can definitely go down much lower.
- FXE breakdown and UUP breakout of sym triangle
- all indexes just starting crossover in SS
- VIX finally broke out of its consolidation range and go much higher
- basically all sideways patterns caused by last monday broke to the bearish side today

BUY - SELL - HOLD

• hold seems like the best decision as buying before eod or even last week was most ideal
• as markets are still in an uptrend, these pullbacks can reverse back and start a new leg to new highs at any moment
• better to have a moderate stop than a very loose one as this is a countertrend move

Strength - tech, dollar, gld
Weakness - financials

7/8 - wait and see

Buy?
- market closed well off its lows..
- trend is still up...nothing broken...today just shows us going sideways
- despite super bad jobs numbers, we didn't open as low as futures expected and definitely did not close as low as expected either

Side??
- as we are sidetrending in 30min charts of VIX and XLF
- bulls still are in charge so we should not fall much...and bulls need to take some profits, so instead of falling (because bears are too weak), sidetrend might be the most likely thing
- dollar and FXE are still in a trading range

Sell??
- market is super overbought in NYMO and PUT/CALL ratio
- financials keep remaining the laggard
- NDX is right at prior high and other indexes are getting close to it

Verdict?
- if market cannot continue its selling on monday, but instead makes a strong bullish move or reversal, go long
- if market does drop more on monday, great time to short any confirmed setups
- stay patient as the next move (if its to the short side) can be huge!

7/7 - hold

Summary

• SAME STORE SALES - Retailers got great same store sales causing big bump in many retailers (many 5+% gains)
  
• ADP JOBS - upside surprise with ADP jobs numbers...this surprised many investors and made them bullish ahead of tomorrow's jobs numbers...but remember that as expectations will be high for a good number tomorrow, if it gives us a downside shock, we might have a huge selloff...and a good number will mean continued bullishness
• QQQ - got a new intraday high on the tech index...so far SPX just keeps following $TRAN and QQQ as it breaks prior resistance and keeps going higher...so best to have money in tech or transport and keep watching them for the next move.
• DEFENSIVE - money moving out of defensive sectors like consumer staples and pharma
• XLF - huge move in financials today as well...finally joining the rally, bullish
  

buy / sell / hold

• overall, bullish...so if u got a position, best to hold it with a nice loose stop...and if got nothing, should have bought earlier as now is not ideal to buy.
  

Leader: Retailers, Copper, Financials
Laggard: solar, pharmaceuticals, consumer staples

7/6 - hold

• - things looked weak and near ready to be sold but in the last few minutes of trading, some buying came back in and helped many stocks and indexes close near its highs....
• - midday weakness felt fake and was fake...bears are scared and bulls waiting to rebuy after the breather is over
• - again, financials is the only sector that showed real weakness...but still it closed at its highs and looks like it had a good enough pullback to resume its uptrend
• - QQQ went above its strong daily resistance and $tran at new highs...definitely bullish signs
• - weakness started with strong dollar and weak Euro...if this continues, we might get a strong pullback to add to this recent sideways action

buy / sell / hold
- as market is still way overbought and extended, any little jitter on news can send us tumbling...be careful and hold...not buy...when big enough a pullback lately to be a great buy day


Leader: QQQ, DIA
Laggard: financials

7/5 - 1 min

definitely feels like the bulls got a handle on things and pressure is on the bears to bring everything back down....even with the portugal downgrade and last week's strong bullish action, the market held up today....no strong reversal down in the eod means the bears are scared...

buy / sell / hold
yes we are overbought which means buying new positions now (or last friday) was not ideal as opposed to 6/27 when the rally started but we can still hold and wait...also too early to go short...but if we get a strong reversal candle and confirmation weakness after, we got a few great charts to selloff

strong sector: energy, tech (nflx), gold, oil
weak sector: financials

7/3 - 1 min

market still feels like it will stubbornly keep chugging higher despite all the reasons why the market should fall. i think it should fall as well but what i think does not matter..most important is what happens with the market, not what i think...

so with that in mind, i decided to continue chasing the trend and bought long today. may turn out wise or may turn out to buy at the peak...but if there is a reversal, i plan to get out quick...if it keeps going, i will not have to be mad that i didn't make any money...this is how i want to trade in the present and future as it has what worked best for me in the past.

6/30 - 1 min

the market continues to be strong and is making more believers of the rally but still many don't believe it...i am in the sideways camp where i really have no idea if this will go way higher or stop soon and fall back down...sentiment-wise, it really doesn't feel like we are gonna have a much bigger drop soon...more likely to go higher actually...weird huh?

but i think techincally, we need to see where UUP goes...breaks down and we have to buy with both fists...if bounces and goes higher, then we will have a nice round of selling...watch that and keep ahead of the news...