Thursday, July 21, 2011

7/21 - bullish (hold)

Bullish
- XLU has a nice cup and handle while other etfs have a funny looking sym triangle
- financials are outperformers with earnings better than expected atleast in terms of stock performance reaction, probably because of MS earnings
- utilities at new high
- NYMO middle and oversold SS
- despite fears on debt ceiling, market made nice bullish candle that means the street doesn't care
- UUP bearish breakdown of sym triangle
- VIX still weak
- XLF already has a greater than 61.8% retrace

Bearish
- DIA right at prior high...exact point when zoomed into 30min chart
- if we get more complications with debt ceiling agreement, market can overreact and reverse in a hurry
- banks already moved a lot...and when they are weak..so they might be overbought already

  • if not for the big move in banks and news, i would leave the stop nice and wide for longs...
  • but with headline risk, safer with "hold" stop...but definitely not time for a "sell stop"

No comments: