8/12 - pullback over? (hold stop)

NYMO - back to full neutral

SPX - closed above resistance...good

TLT - showing strength today though..not good for bulls

VIX - shows that it again did not fall much and maybe ready to resume higher

XLK - what worries me most is seeing so many charts like this...basically a textbook pullback to breakdown levels and very likely this deadcat bounce is over and we drift lower monday

i have to stay bullish and we only have hints at a possible strong resistance from the breakdown level in some important charts...as we are still are probably cheaper than the stocks are worth, i think we can still go higher...but definitely a time to also look to the short side...

8/11 - reversal today needs confirmation

TLT - big drop which makes sense with the market move...but thought gld would follow, but nope...also 1 day is not enough to break the TLT trend...


NYMO - neutral now...pullback over?


SPX - last minute selloff made the close a strong support going into tomorrow..rangebound a strong possibility



QQQ - same resistance in XLK and QQQ but this is quite an ugly chart for tech bulls as we are right at breakdown, making for a textbook pullback before more selling




MDY - midcaps got above resistance but as its not as important an index, dunno how much weight to give it


VIX - surprisingly, not a huge selloff here....this is a bearish sign that gives hope to bears that today's rally was bs


GLD - another bearish sign as a reversal in stocks should also be a reversal in other stuff such as the much looked at GLD...but in fact, gdx even rose

• jobless claim numbers better than expected
• ban on short ban proposed in europe...

got so many reasons to fear that today's push up was bs and that we will trade sideways...need confirmation of a move up and close about resistance for qqq and spx with a better selloff in vix and gld to make me feel better..but atleast there was a huge selloff in TLT which makes sense with the reversal...as i feel a big bounce from the lows made sense more than more selling, i also feel that this bounce we just had in 1 day and the stagnant moves of the last few days might be enough juice to move us way lower tomorrow or atleast firmly into a sideways pattern.

8/10 - time to go long

forgot to post...but overall feeling was that a hold of the support level at the close makes for a strong reason that it can be the bottom, unless of course we break right below it tomorrow (which it didn't)....so at 8/10's night, i was ready to go long looking for other stocks that were able to hold off its lows and possibly be strong for the coming day as the risk to reward of going long here is so much better than going short...

and here is carter worth's take on it:

8/9 - time to bottom pick?

SPX - March 2009 reversal

SPX - big reversal

QQQ - strongest index so if want to bottom pick, this is best

VIX - big move down here too...

NYMO - big bounce and still way oversold

As many investors feel like geniuses for getting out of their shorts yesterday and getting long today, i feel everything just cannot go straight up like how everyone's selective memory suggests. I have looked at the march 2009 bottom and reversal and it didn't have as huge a reversal as i remember...the reversal day didn't even look as clean as today with such big volume and range...and all this surprised me....i thought i knew what the reversal looked like but was wrong...in the weeks of rally following the bottom was a mixed bag of big up days and sideways small doji-ish days...so this tells me that even if we do rally, don't expect a straight up move up...i am also conflicted to bottom pick a super oversold stock that plummetted in all this or to be patient and only buy real bullish patterns...but as most stocks took a huge dive, nothing looks great technically but reversal oversold stocks

8/8 - still waiting for a bottom

NYMO - super super oversold now

SPY - volume keeps rising..wow...waiting for 1st lower volume day to mark another hint that reversal is starting

UUP - calmest chart there is...makes me feel gold is very irrational and when that falls huge, market will most likely snapback huge as well...this shows that fear is rampant and irrational

VIX - huge move...super big candle that might even be bigger than LEH times...wow!

Market is so oversold that we should just jump in buying everything...but the timing still ain't right...the action makes me not even tempted to look for longs today as it feels that the bulls are still away and are in no rush to buy now...but of course a snapback will happen...and probably be big...and from this fall, we probably need some huge news as a catalyst to fear the bears...because at this moment, bears are so strong and comfortable that it will take a lot to change the entire environment imo...can't think we will gap up anywhere but more a huge reversal off a decent open and huge selloff is what i expect to be the reversal day...

8/5 - S+P downgrade factored into selling? (hold stop)

Futures from S+P downgrade breaches friday's lows


SPY = finish way off the lows with HUGE volume


XLK = strongest sector able to hold above and close at its support


VIX - big reversal candle after shooting to super high levels today


SPX weekly - lows hit a prior pullback low...wonder if it will hold...huge drop this week..wow



i really want to call this a bottom but with the S+P downgrade, it actually makes more sense that tomorrow might be the bottom...hindsight all this selling was probably the smart money's way of valuing in the downgrade....if starts very very low like 400pts, i think we can come back late with huge volume and show a capitulation day...but who knows...

8/4 - no support (hold stop)

SPY - big candle + no support left

VIX - huge candle making new highs

NYMO - despite not thinking it was possible, we broke below to make new lows

• big 500+ pts loss
• news blame it on "liquidity problems" brought on by contagion in EU especially italy...started to Jean Claude Trichet's comments
• fell all day long and weak intraday rebounds failed everytime
• weakest sector was Energy with oil dropping big from global slowdown worries
• 99% of SPX declines

Today felt like Lehman days...crazy...and this time it feels like no matter what crooked FED chief or gov't plan is to be made, it feels that markets will still fall as the problem is bigger than just america. it is the entire continent of Europe. So what is to happen next? no support so we should just keep falling...but also hard to believe as markets have fallen so much lately..what is it 9 of 10 days? over 10% loss in 2 weeks time...wow...

only thing that might help is good jobs numbers but as these problems are bigger than just something like jobs, i feel we will fall lower..but i would also be worrisome of holding huge put positions as the market is SOOOO oversold...but as the last few days showed, oversold is not great for timing...

8/3 - bullish reversal candle (buy stop)

LSI - short took a plunge + long barely crossing - cautious bullish

SPY - pattern similar across all indexes, except QQQ less low vs June lows


VIX - not a big move, but i think its okay...means that the pullback might be stronger than ppl expect


XLF - reversal candle on good volume like all other sectors but this is the most battered chart of them all


XLI - most battered of late...looks very ripe to get back to the breakdown levels in the next few days

NYMO - bounce off that super oversold level...


Strongest Sectors today: XLK, XLI

• bad job news, yet rally to close near highs

Because it feels like an oversold bounce today because of bs reasons in the news trying to explain the rally, i think the best stocks to go long on are the way oversold ones...the strongest buyers will probably be the value investors and definitely they will either hit up the way oversold, battered industial or pharma stocks for the strong tech stocks that have pulled back and are now good values again. Today could have been an entry day at the EOD just based on the candle but i think its still safer to just get in on a nice move tomorrow...any pattern will work including super solversold stocks like PEP and AKS

I held off on buying some pretty bearish patterns today and it turned out to be a great idea...had i not cared about the market i would have gotten in and been nearly stopped out by the eod...

8/2 - expecting reversal (hold stop)

• weak consumer shopping numbers hammer retailers
• market continues to drift as senate votes on debt ceiling bill
• cnbc's focus now sounding very pessimistic and all the bullish talk from earnings couple weeks ago are all gone...
• technicians even eyeing 200ema
• possible 8 straight down days

Strongest Sectors: GLD, QQQ, XLK
Weakest Sectors: XLF, XLI, PPH

can't believe just how weak the market was today...kept thinking a bounce and reversal would have happened today but it ever came..all day it was just selling...even with news around with the debt ceiling, investors sold off...as i kept hearing cnbc, i kept thinking just how pessimistic everyone has become...it is a total 180 from weeks ago when apple earnings was making everyone thing that we are going to the moon...now with 8 days of losses, fear is high....so we got the technical oversold, now we are getting the fear oversold, that means we might just be 1 step closer to a relief rally that surprises us all...great jobs numbers tomorrow from ADP? or will it take til friday for something to happen?

8/1 - bullish (hold stop)

• very weak how market was unable to hold any of the gains from the optimistic reaction to the weekend debt ceiling talks...
• but market was able to come back eod to close at the middle of its range
• range today was huge and as we off the lows and highs, neither bulls or bears won today...tomorrow is needed to get a better direction
• charts show that internally we are starting to reverse, but no hard evidence yet
• ISM numbers at 7am gave a huge push down after the slow drag lower as enthusiasm for debt ceiling agreements faded...this seems like a bigger future scare than the debt ceiling...definitely pros know that this can mean even more slowdown in the market is to come
  

Still like going long here more so than going short...still loving a reversal here but because of weakness, i am doubting a higher high from here but more a lower high with this next move...but definitely next move should be higher, just dunno how high..