Wednesday, August 10, 2011

8/9 - time to bottom pick?

SPX - March 2009 reversal


SPX - big reversal





QQQ - strongest index so if want to bottom pick, this is best




VIX - big move down here too...



NYMO - big bounce and still way oversold



As many investors feel like geniuses for getting out of their shorts yesterday and getting long today, i feel everything just cannot go straight up like how everyone's selective memory suggests. I have looked at the march 2009 bottom and reversal and it didn't have as huge a reversal as i remember...the reversal day didn't even look as clean as today with such big volume and range...and all this surprised me....i thought i knew what the reversal looked like but was wrong...in the weeks of rally following the bottom was a mixed bag of big up days and sideways small doji-ish days...so this tells me that even if we do rally, don't expect a straight up move up...i am also conflicted to bottom pick a super oversold stock that plummetted in all this or to be patient and only buy real bullish patterns...but as most stocks took a huge dive, nothing looks great technically but reversal oversold stocks

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