Combining short/long term trends, the stock bounced off the support of $77.5 earlier this yr. It's midway through to the resistance line and broke the 50 MA not too long ago. It may have been a good time to buy earlier in the month when it just started bouncing. A little more than 10% could have been made. It's too late now. We're at $88.
I'm waiting for the stock to either hit $95 in 2-3 weeks and brake the resistance, or bounce back down.
Since July of last yr there's been a triple top. Is a fourth forming? The increase in tops has been very very subtle. Nothing too exciting. I don't think I'll be buying unless it hits $97. The next low could easily be $72. We'll wait and see.
SUMMARY:
Stock price should be between $80-95 in the next month. If it falls short or exceeds the top, we're looking at a new trend.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
"Markets undecided. Bears have Edge!" - 2/19/08
"Markets undecided. Bears have Edge!" - 2/19/08
the parallel triangle pattern in SPX suggests that bears and bulls are at a deadlock. there are no winners in the past 3 weeks...only consolidation. weak volume is also a signal of this. i call it the calm before the storm. the market can break out and move up from here or fall hard and continue its descent. i think the market suggests more the latter. TNX has been a great leading indicator and it suggests that we are very much in a downtrend and will fail this retest of the trendline and head back lower from here. The best traders will wait for a confirmation breakout of the triangle before investing. I, on the other hand, am invested moderately heavy to the downside.
Simon Louie
Chief Market Technician
Titans of Wall Street Equity Management, LLC
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Markets Flinch... Oil at $100.01
The three major indices all closed near the unchaged mark with Nasdaq being the laggard of the three. For the past week or so, the market seems to be buying time and consolidating in a tight range that's getting tighter by day. A significant move to either direction is anticipated by most traders which may occur as soon as tomorrow.
So which direction will the market choose...
As the price of oil closing above $100 by a penny made breaking news headline on CNBC today, the market had a steep selloff. This swift move to the downside was reminiscent of the fall during the sell off in the early part of January. Bob Pisani reiterated that the buying interest is on light volume once again.
Pre-market headlines included news from European banks, WSJ article on Lehman Bros, and Walmart earnings report. WMT earnings was very positive for the market but couldn't keep the market up into the close. The financial news, meanwhile, sounded like a warning to a much bigger problem that we can't see, but it seemed to be overlooked today. I believe these negative news for the Financials will have a much longer effect on the market than a not-as-bad-as expected earnings from Walmart.
After-market earnings report from HP was fabulous and the stock is up a good 5% in the after-market trading. This should help buoy the market, especially Nasdaq, tomorrow morning. CROX on the other hand, failed to raise guidance and got crushed. We'll see how the traders react to these mixed reports.
Oil, Gold, and all other commodities stayed very strong. These industries have been strong throughout 2007 and are remaining at the top in 2008. Will they be strong enough to withstand another fall in the Financials which will result in the slowdown in the US and possibly the world economy? The demand for the commodities seem unfathomable but I'd expect for these stock prices to at least take a break and trade in a range while the market suffers once more.
CPI numbers are to be reported tomorrow morning. A strong CPI number will be negative for traders as it combines with rising inflation to diminish the necessity of further action from the Fed. However, will a weak CPI number be positive for traders? or will it just destroy the positive sentiment created by the likes of Walmart numbers? We'll find out tomorrow!
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet market columnist
So which direction will the market choose...
As the price of oil closing above $100 by a penny made breaking news headline on CNBC today, the market had a steep selloff. This swift move to the downside was reminiscent of the fall during the sell off in the early part of January. Bob Pisani reiterated that the buying interest is on light volume once again.
Pre-market headlines included news from European banks, WSJ article on Lehman Bros, and Walmart earnings report. WMT earnings was very positive for the market but couldn't keep the market up into the close. The financial news, meanwhile, sounded like a warning to a much bigger problem that we can't see, but it seemed to be overlooked today. I believe these negative news for the Financials will have a much longer effect on the market than a not-as-bad-as expected earnings from Walmart.
After-market earnings report from HP was fabulous and the stock is up a good 5% in the after-market trading. This should help buoy the market, especially Nasdaq, tomorrow morning. CROX on the other hand, failed to raise guidance and got crushed. We'll see how the traders react to these mixed reports.
Oil, Gold, and all other commodities stayed very strong. These industries have been strong throughout 2007 and are remaining at the top in 2008. Will they be strong enough to withstand another fall in the Financials which will result in the slowdown in the US and possibly the world economy? The demand for the commodities seem unfathomable but I'd expect for these stock prices to at least take a break and trade in a range while the market suffers once more.
CPI numbers are to be reported tomorrow morning. A strong CPI number will be negative for traders as it combines with rising inflation to diminish the necessity of further action from the Fed. However, will a weak CPI number be positive for traders? or will it just destroy the positive sentiment created by the likes of Walmart numbers? We'll find out tomorrow!
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet market columnist
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Simon: Market Outlook - 50/50 bullish bearish
The charts above will show much as to how i view the stock market now. Unlike my fellow analyst, Rino, i prefer to use technical graphs as my main tool to breakdown the market and to express my views. You will not hear fancy words and clever banter on my analysis. Okay now, lets get back into the analysis.
Bear Signals:
1. the charts. look at previous price history and how the patterns in oscillators before a big drop match up real close to what we are experiencing now.
2. we are still in a very bearish market. 70% of the time, being bear will be profitable.
Bull Signals:
1. many charts from strong companies like KBH, FXI, PCU, DRYS, AAPL, GOOG, FSLR have all started to show higher lows, a strong base forming, or even the beginning stages of a double bottom.
2. too many stocks are still too oversold such as big tech, solar, and many financials to be able to bring the market down another several hundred points.
3. Support is still existant. Bears have not been able to push it down lately.
4. I can't find a great stock to short, but some bullish patterns are forming in a few of the stocks in my watchlist.
Expert Opinion: Next few days says it all. We are on support now. If its breaks, sell ASAP and swtich to BEAR mode. If it holds and goes up, keep stops tight and be quick to exit after a few big up days. My portfolio is all bullish now. I anticipate several sectors to make big up moves this week before a further selling in the DOW, SPX, and QQQQ next week.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Finding Safety in Gold.... Black Gold too!
The bearish sentiment is still at large as the market failed to break yesterday's high with its effort in the early part of trading day.
The day started with the December wholesale inventory report that came in higher than expected. This wasn't the only economic data reported this week that pointed towards a slow down in the economy. The reaction to the report, however, was mild. For the second day in a row, the market traded sideways on less than stellar volume. There was no clear reason to buy or sell. Nonetheless, major indices ever so slightly drifted - almost unnoticeably - LOWER.
Nasdaq managed to attract buyers today as the recovery in Cisco seems to have calmed the investors after the technical breakdown occurred earlier in the week. Jon Najarian also mentioned today that the option traders are getting out of Feb puts and moving into Mar puts. Thus, indicating that a further decline in Nasdaq is not to be expected until after upcoming options expiration week for February options. This temporary one week time frame may offer opportunity for short term traders to play the bounce on names like GOOG & AAPL. Just remember that not all technology stocks work in this environment nor will it last longer than a couple of days.
Looking ahead, Energy stocks and Gold stocks seem to be on the move up again. The price of oil closed near $92 as OPEC intends on keeping it above $80 a barrel. It is unclear as to whether the $100 per barrel will once again be touched but the short term trend seems to be to the upside. Even so, the Energy sector as a whole seems to offer a mixed bag of stocks. I think VLO, and TSO will work here while XOM may not. It looks as though selectivity will be key in the Energy sector.
The Gold stocks, on the other hand, all seem to be ready to stampede out of the gate. Gold looks poised to take off to the next price level, putting an end to a much needed consolidation at the $900 range. How high will Gold prices rise? I do not know. However, this may be a forthcoming sign of weakness in the stock market and dare I say, the possibility of another Fed rate cut.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet market columnist
GOOG
The day started with the December wholesale inventory report that came in higher than expected. This wasn't the only economic data reported this week that pointed towards a slow down in the economy. The reaction to the report, however, was mild. For the second day in a row, the market traded sideways on less than stellar volume. There was no clear reason to buy or sell. Nonetheless, major indices ever so slightly drifted - almost unnoticeably - LOWER.
Nasdaq managed to attract buyers today as the recovery in Cisco seems to have calmed the investors after the technical breakdown occurred earlier in the week. Jon Najarian also mentioned today that the option traders are getting out of Feb puts and moving into Mar puts. Thus, indicating that a further decline in Nasdaq is not to be expected until after upcoming options expiration week for February options. This temporary one week time frame may offer opportunity for short term traders to play the bounce on names like GOOG & AAPL. Just remember that not all technology stocks work in this environment nor will it last longer than a couple of days.
Looking ahead, Energy stocks and Gold stocks seem to be on the move up again. The price of oil closed near $92 as OPEC intends on keeping it above $80 a barrel. It is unclear as to whether the $100 per barrel will once again be touched but the short term trend seems to be to the upside. Even so, the Energy sector as a whole seems to offer a mixed bag of stocks. I think VLO, and TSO will work here while XOM may not. It looks as though selectivity will be key in the Energy sector.
The Gold stocks, on the other hand, all seem to be ready to stampede out of the gate. Gold looks poised to take off to the next price level, putting an end to a much needed consolidation at the $900 range. How high will Gold prices rise? I do not know. However, this may be a forthcoming sign of weakness in the stock market and dare I say, the possibility of another Fed rate cut.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet market columnist
GOOG
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Simon: Trading - The Most Wicked Game Alive
consider these figures:
1. you can correctly predict the future price action of 8 of 10 stocks correct and lose 35% of your capital
2. you can have only 2 of the 10 stocks go in the correct direction and be up 25% on your portfolio.
3. you can have a streak of losing trades and no way out despite reading many books, watching cnbc, and researching charts.
4. you and your friend can read exactly the same books, listen to the exact same news, and look at the exact same chart but totally disagree on your predictions.
5. you can do perfectly fine and rack up huge gains with no money in play, but when money is involved, despite using the same analysis, be on the losing end of the majority of your trades
6. you can have a genie in your back pocket to predict correctly the direction of your position by the end of the month, and you can still place bad trades and come out down.
never before have i been involved in such a wicked game. reward is huge and risk is even more huge. its crazy out there. think you got it figured out and i guaranty that tomorrow will shock you. the market punishes anyone who is stubborn, cocky, overly emotional, greedy, or lazy. mastering the technicals and the vocabulary is only the start. With technicals alone, you are guaranteed a loser 90% of the time. being successful requires great understanding and handling of your emotions when trading. its tougher than you might think. getting in at the right time, knowing when to switch sides (on your positon), knowing when to trust your strategy, and knowing when not to take a risk all keys success..and coincidentally are all related to having good emotional discipline. success takes a lifetime to master. i intend to do it much sooner than that...good luck!
1. you can correctly predict the future price action of 8 of 10 stocks correct and lose 35% of your capital
2. you can have only 2 of the 10 stocks go in the correct direction and be up 25% on your portfolio.
3. you can have a streak of losing trades and no way out despite reading many books, watching cnbc, and researching charts.
4. you and your friend can read exactly the same books, listen to the exact same news, and look at the exact same chart but totally disagree on your predictions.
5. you can do perfectly fine and rack up huge gains with no money in play, but when money is involved, despite using the same analysis, be on the losing end of the majority of your trades
6. you can have a genie in your back pocket to predict correctly the direction of your position by the end of the month, and you can still place bad trades and come out down.
never before have i been involved in such a wicked game. reward is huge and risk is even more huge. its crazy out there. think you got it figured out and i guaranty that tomorrow will shock you. the market punishes anyone who is stubborn, cocky, overly emotional, greedy, or lazy. mastering the technicals and the vocabulary is only the start. With technicals alone, you are guaranteed a loser 90% of the time. being successful requires great understanding and handling of your emotions when trading. its tougher than you might think. getting in at the right time, knowing when to switch sides (on your positon), knowing when to trust your strategy, and knowing when not to take a risk all keys success..and coincidentally are all related to having good emotional discipline. success takes a lifetime to master. i intend to do it much sooner than that...good luck!
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