Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Simon: Market Outlook - 50/50 bullish bearish






The charts above will show much as to how i view the stock market now. Unlike my fellow analyst, Rino, i prefer to use technical graphs as my main tool to breakdown the market and to express my views. You will not hear fancy words and clever banter on my analysis. Okay now, lets get back into the analysis.

Bear Signals:
1. the charts. look at previous price history and how the patterns in oscillators before a big drop match up real close to what we are experiencing now.
2. we are still in a very bearish market. 70% of the time, being bear will be profitable.

Bull Signals:
1. many charts from strong companies like KBH, FXI, PCU, DRYS, AAPL, GOOG, FSLR have all started to show higher lows, a strong base forming, or even the beginning stages of a double bottom.
2. too many stocks are still too oversold such as big tech, solar, and many financials to be able to bring the market down another several hundred points.
3. Support is still existant. Bears have not been able to push it down lately.
4. I can't find a great stock to short, but some bullish patterns are forming in a few of the stocks in my watchlist.

Expert Opinion: Next few days says it all. We are on support now. If its breaks, sell ASAP and swtich to BEAR mode. If it holds and goes up, keep stops tight and be quick to exit after a few big up days. My portfolio is all bullish now. I anticipate several sectors to make big up moves this week before a further selling in the DOW, SPX, and QQQQ next week.

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