Thursday, February 7, 2008

Simon: Trading - The Most Wicked Game Alive

consider these figures:

1. you can correctly predict the future price action of 8 of 10 stocks correct and lose 35% of your capital
2. you can have only 2 of the 10 stocks go in the correct direction and be up 25% on your portfolio.
3. you can have a streak of losing trades and no way out despite reading many books, watching cnbc, and researching charts.
4. you and your friend can read exactly the same books, listen to the exact same news, and look at the exact same chart but totally disagree on your predictions.
5. you can do perfectly fine and rack up huge gains with no money in play, but when money is involved, despite using the same analysis, be on the losing end of the majority of your trades
6. you can have a genie in your back pocket to predict correctly the direction of your position by the end of the month, and you can still place bad trades and come out down.

never before have i been involved in such a wicked game. reward is huge and risk is even more huge. its crazy out there. think you got it figured out and i guaranty that tomorrow will shock you. the market punishes anyone who is stubborn, cocky, overly emotional, greedy, or lazy. mastering the technicals and the vocabulary is only the start. With technicals alone, you are guaranteed a loser 90% of the time. being successful requires great understanding and handling of your emotions when trading. its tougher than you might think. getting in at the right time, knowing when to switch sides (on your positon), knowing when to trust your strategy, and knowing when not to take a risk all keys success..and coincidentally are all related to having good emotional discipline. success takes a lifetime to master. i intend to do it much sooner than that...good luck!

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