Sunday, July 27, 2008

7/25 - Market Analysis

SPY still shaping up for a pullback:


USO had a lower close, but support is still in tact. Still looking like a bullish pullback is developing:

XLF continues to fall. SS confirmed cross and weakness overall in the sector looks good on the short side:

A new chart this week, the SPY weekly. Looking at this, we are actually at a strong weekly support (but weirdly, SPX is not and broke below it last week)...its good to see this to see that we should be cautious but for timing, this chart is not very important.


Game Plan: Friday was a good day to take a small short position into the market. I liked the pause day after a big drop on Thursday and a small short position was exactly what i bought. I do emphasize small though as this market is oversold on the weekly chart and we are straddling support in many charts. Financials continue to be the weak spot and oil seems to be following the market which is quite a contrast from the previous months where the market has followed oil. USO continues to me on my long watch list with the inclusion of several new stocks. On the short side, i am holding my stance on financials and gaming. Tough time to trade so its great to just nibble here and there with small positions as the market tries to figure itself out. Window dressing these next couple days might spell good things for the market's big cap bringing up the market and this week's economic data as well as some earnings might shake the market giving a more foggy technical picture, so beware. Overall though, i still like my stance of Bearish Neutral for the upcoming 2 weeks.

Long Watch List:

oversold big cap tech - aapl, goog
agriculture - agu, mos, sqm
pharmaeuticals - jnj, amgn
USO
SKF

Short Watch List:

exchanges - nyx, ice, ndaq
retailers - nile, hd, low, bare
financials - xlf, lm, leh, ms, wb, aig, v, mer, ibn
gaming - mgm, lvs, wynn
solars - cy, spwr
UNH
FDX

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