Tuesday, July 29, 2008

7/28 - Market Analysis

Today, and from maybe today onward, i am using the SPX chart instead of the SPY. a better picture of the entire market and not just a summarized look with the etf. Overall same story as support broke big today on light volume:



USO had an upday which was a great sign But its still lacking strength. Tomorrow, with a good push up, oil will be a very good buy. Again, i am concerned about the volume here as well:

XLF lead the way down today as i expected. A slight area of support is where we stand now. the light volume makes me very cautious and hesitant about shorting any stock with more than just a small position:


Game Plan: Great day today as everything predicted occured. The only thing that caught me off guard was the extremely light volume. I don't see any reason other than the end of the month and the upcoming economic reports for the low volume. Because of the light volume, i am going to be playing this week very cautiously. I believe that the next big volume day will predict the next leg, whether up or down. I still favor the downside and believe in the theory that markets don't need big volume to fall (but they do help with confidence)...Tomorrow, if we get an orderly recovery rally from today's losses, i intend to buy another small short position. Most likely it will be in the financials but HD and UNH look very good as well. My watch list is the exact same as yesterday's. I was really tempted to get in on a short position in the first hour of trading today but decided to play it cautious as we were on slight support and the fact that these past trading days were very light on volume.

Long Watch List:

oversold big cap tech - aapl, goog
agriculture - agu, mos, sqm
pharmaeuticals - jnj, amgn
USO
SKF

Short Watch List:

exchanges - nyx, ice, ndaq
retailers - nile, hd, low, bare
financials - xlf, lm, leh, ms, wb, aig, v, mer, ibn
gaming - mgm, lvs, wynn
solars - cy, spwr
UNH
FDX

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