1/30 - Market Analysis (stage 4)

SPX - possible bearish scenario


SPX - triangle scenario


SPY - should get some lift but fail at resistance


XLF - on support


USO - descending triangle


VIX - channel possible


A/D - bearish


ETFs - financials still leader in the 5 day scale


Analysis: At this moment, we have reasons to doubt the downtrend, but that would be like calling a bottom...its not smart and when the downtrend is so strong, it can be very dangerous. support will always be around and so will resistance, but at this point, resistance looks stronger than support...i think we are more likely to test the lows than to break above the 20ma support at SPX...and of course, fundamentally, i don't think we are ready for a bottom...more things need to fail...

R.C. Market Report 1.30

• Today: Market performed poorly once again. Seeing the market dip lower in the final hour surprised me as I had expected the market to hold up in the second half of day.

• Monday: We closed right on 8000 on Dow. My stance remains neutral but seeing the previous multi-day rally disappear in a flash, I can't help but be pessimistic. Today marks the third month that the market has traded inside the sidetrending range. And still, we've yet to see a rally on increasing volume. Looks like we've got long ways to go.

1/29 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance held


SPY - looks like a breakdown...2nd look actually shows that we closed right where we closed 2 days ago...that 84.5 level might turn out to be key support if it holds


RKH - never hit resistance


USO - support bout to give way


VIX - still downtrending


A/D


ETFs - safety stocks leaders


Analysis: light volume on big fall...hmm...i got stopped out and i bet many others did too. after yesterday's rally, it was expected for us to give up some of the gains of yesterday but i didn't expect it to give up this much...it filled the gap in many charts and most are well under the EMAs in the 30min charts but some key charts as SPY and XLF didn't lose more than yesterday's gains...that tells me that support might still be present and all today was was a shakeout of yesterday's fast traders...but overall, i would be slightly bullish at best...more bearish actually...and even if i remain bullish, this is not the time to buy or hold. its the time to sell and wait for strength to get back in, and if weakness, great time to short the market...market is tough and that means we have to be cautious....

R.C. Market Report 1.29

• Today: Market didn't hold up very well as we gave up everything from yesterday. But volume was lighter than yesterday.

• Tomorrow: It'll be critical to see if we can bounce back tomorrow. If not, 8000 level will be tested again and things can turn ugly very quickly.

1/28 - Market Analysis

SPX - breakout of small channel...at strong resistance yet again


SPY - good support now from channel...can pullback slightly from here


COMPQ - near resistance but not yet


RKH - surprising many that it broke out...now we got a little more before strong strong resistance


USO - test of lows intraday


VIX - intraday support


TLT - sidelined money?

A/D - way bullish in terms of volume


ETFs - financials lead because of news...no surprise...XLE kinda lagged


Analysis: Impressive breakout today from a gap overnight...news was the driver...technically it was not the time to sell short just that, as i indicated yesterday, we had a higher probability to break down than break higher...so i was surprised...we have resistance right at the closing price so tomorrow might just invalidate all the hoopla today...but for now, i remain cautiously bullish as we are making higher highs and higher lows on the 30min chart...tech had some great moves and many individual charts showing a lack of resistance above...thats an area i am looking to add money into...

R.C. Market Report 1.28

• Today: Pre-market action indicated that we'd open higher behind the 'bad bank' news. That positive momentum carried through the first half of day. In the second half, we had the release of what I thought to be a very market friendly statement out of the Fed. Market seemed to hesitate after the release, and with the conservative republicans coming out to discredit obama's stimulus plan, market could not push its way higher.

• Tomorrow: We now have a higher high, potentially ending the recent downtrend. And the formation of a higher low to the november low may be happening as well. So this is all very positive for the bulls. However, volume still remains low and we still need to see how the market handles retracement of the current four day rally. My bearish sentiment is now changed to neutral, eventhough we can very well pull back tomorrow.

1/27 - Market Analysis

SPX - at resistance


SPY - ascending triangle


COMPQ - strong resistance


RKH - hit a wall?


USO - failed bottom?


VIX - slicing through support


A/D


ETFs - all sectors in the black...


Analysis: As someone holding onto a call option, i am not feeling very confident going into tomorrow as charts look more bearish than bullish now...BUT this nearterm reversal back down is also not confirmed so its also too early to just throw out my exit strategy and load up on puts...odds favor a fall, but anything can happen...and since nothing is clear cut right now, i would say that the safest position is a small position...

R.C. Market Report 1.27

• Today: More of the same. Up a little, down a little, but not much in the end.

• Tomorrow: After-hour newsbreak on government nationalizing 'bad banks' looks to spark the market tomorrow morning. That plus words out of Fed tomorrow may lift the market. But with the market constantly rallying on decreasing volume, I find it hard to feel confident about any of these rallies, big or small.

1/26 - Market Analysis (stage 4)

SPX - channel sideways


SPY - bullish


XLF - bearish @ resistance


USO - intraday support


VIX - bearish except 20ma


A/D


ETFs - energy up, financials down


Analysis: not much has changed...lighter volume and another sideways day..some charts looking bullish, some (financials) not...at this point a push up would end the sideways action while a down move will give us some more sideways unless we fall hard...its a boring scary time we are in...

R.C. Market Report 1.26

• Today: Decent news out of GE and existing home sale number lifted the market early on. Market held on to finish positive but spent most of the time reversing its course.

• Tomorrow: Downtrend is still intact. Market isn't going down in the fashion that I had imagined a week ago. But the direction of the trend hasn't changed. I remain bearish.

1/23 - Market Analysis

SPX - narrow channel


SPY - very narrow channel


XLF - air below


UUP - resistance holding for now


USO - lovely looking bullish time


DBC - shows the reversal commodities + oil might be having


DBA - best of breed for commodities


VIX - resistance strong


A/D - volume is quite bullish for a sideways ending day


ETFs - modest moves...


Analysis: i swear today was dejavu like yesterday...30min spy chart explains recent price action the best. as i went through these analysis charts, i feel more bullish than bearish...support is not strong and nonevident in many charts, but USO and other commodities look so nice that it gives me good reason to get bullish...nothing is confirmed so i am still supposed to be neutral...and i am right now...for the past few days, i've been looking at individual stock charts looking for the next great trade, and i haven't found many things to buy...best positions are bullish setups though...haven't seen many great bearish setups so i am hoping more for a rally than a fall...but for now, i am really confused as to SPX and XLF...

R.C. Market Report 1.23

• Today: Another rally that had me asking why? This is the third day in a row that we've had an intraday rally after a bad morning start. It's getting to be quite annoying.

• Monday: My stance remains the same. I find no reason to turn bullish at the moment. USO flattening out it's dramatic decline is about the only bullish thing going for stock market.

1/22 - Market Analysis

SPX - still bearish


SPY - triangle, bearish


RKH - still bearish


USO - possible 2x bottom


VIX - SPX bullish


A/D - volume is super bearish...bearish divergence


ETFs - tech, XLF, and XLE laggards? definitely bearish day....


Analysis: looking at just the 10 min chart today, i felt quite bullish and thinking things will turn around before falling harder...but having the last fall at the EOD, gave even the 30" chart looks more bearish than bullish...there are still chances that we can bounce and close above recent resistance, but indicators show that bulls are more in charge than bears. I fear that we can fall hard either today or monday to bring us below support...the lack of true support in financials is most bearish while USO and VIX charts are giving me slim hopes of bullishness. definitely a time to be very choosey with your stock picks.