Saturday, January 31, 2009

1/30 - Market Analysis (stage 4)

SPX - possible bearish scenario


SPX - triangle scenario


SPY - should get some lift but fail at resistance


XLF - on support


USO - descending triangle


VIX - channel possible


A/D - bearish


ETFs - financials still leader in the 5 day scale


Analysis: At this moment, we have reasons to doubt the downtrend, but that would be like calling a bottom...its not smart and when the downtrend is so strong, it can be very dangerous. support will always be around and so will resistance, but at this point, resistance looks stronger than support...i think we are more likely to test the lows than to break above the 20ma support at SPX...and of course, fundamentally, i don't think we are ready for a bottom...more things need to fail...

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