"Lehman to Boost Funding with $3 Billion Offering" is the major headline after the close today.
(For more information on the details of this report, please visit cnbc.com)
Analysis:
"The Good"
-Lehman Brothers were able to present this news AFTER they've been able to find buyers to their offering. The release of this news was received with only a mild negativity in the after-hours trading, thanks in big part to announcing the offering that's been FINALIZED.
-In addition to the presence of long term believers of this company, Lehman was able to price their offering some 30-35% premium to the current share price. Getting a higher price for something that's worth less in the current market is a Good thing.
-Lehman is obviously trying very hard to not end up as Bear Stearns #2. They witnessed destruction and that should make them fight to the death.
"The Bad"
-The large, long term investors that purchased the offering are guaranteed 7-7.5% dividend yield. That's quite a rate considering the Treasury Bonds yields in the 3-4% range. Simply put, Lehman is paying lenders twice the rate that the government pays. This certainly won't make their balance sheet look better.
-30-35% premium to the current share price would mean that these shares are being bought at an approximately $50/share (max). The $50 price certainly looks great (a vote of confidence) but if you look closely, just a week ago the stock was trading at a high of $49.64 after Fed rate cut.
-Lehman's CFO Erin Callan was quoted as saying that there was a "window of opportunity in the market" and "significant interest" from several investors. We are merely 10 days away from the most recent market bottom (less than 4% rise in price of S&P500) and she saw a window of opportunity in the market to sell shares?? If she believed that the market will be in better shape 3-6 months, or even a month from now, why would Lehman attend to the significant interest of these investors now.
-Since Bear Stearns left the stage, of the major US brokerage firms, Lehman has the smallest market cap at $20B. Next in line is Merrill Lynch at $40B. It's no surprise that these two stocks have been hit the hardest on any financial weakness.
"The Ugly"
-Lehman Brothers' latest move to find more capital seems like a desperate measure taken during desperate times. Rumors and put buying interests have not tapered off since the collapse of Bear and I believe this is the final act of shooing away the short sellers. But they will be back and in greater number. I will look for an opportunity to join that group if Lehman manages to buoy itself up to $42.50-$45/share range thanks to slight bullishness in the market & bulls comprehending this news in a positive way. I even dare to say that Lehman will follow Bear and disappear. Will the Fed save another private banking institution? I'd say Lehman's has a better chance of filing for bankruptcy than to find itself under Goldman Sachs. The Fed is not going to hold its neck out a second time.
Next drop = Lehman Brothers' Collapse
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
Market Columnist
Savy, young traders putting everything on the line for a piece of the big pie...
Monday, March 31, 2008
Saturday, March 29, 2008
3rd Inning of Bear Market
I've been hearing people make reference to baseball when measuring the time frame of this bear market. With recent (fragile) stability in the market, majority of the analysts seem to be saying that we are in the 7th,8th inning of this bear market game. So I've decided to do some research and find out whether the starting pitcher has indeed retired himself, replaced by a relief pitcher from the BULLpen.
I referred back to the previous bear market of 2000~2002. In that bear market, the sector with the most problem was technology. That honor goes to the financial sector in this bear market. So I've decided to compare technology sector of '00~'02 with financial sector '07~?. According to my assumptive calculations, it'd appear that we may be 75% complete in terms of price retracement and 50% complete in retracement time. What that means is that from the highs of late last year, the financial sector have dropped in price 3/4 of the way to the bottom. However, the speed of decline will decelerate and it'll take as long as it's taken so far to retrace 75%, to retrace the final 25%. That'd mean that the bottom in financials will be reached around the end of 2008. Now, that doesn't mean that it'll skyrocket from there on. The recovery process prior to regaining upside momentum will also take some time.
After comparing the two most critical sectors for the two bear markets, I, then, compared S&P500 for the two timeframes. It seems as though we are 50% complete in price retracement but only about 33% complete in retracement time. These numbers are significant because the general market will fare worse than the financial sector from here on out. Fundamentally, this logic would prove to be true as the credit problems will turn away from financials (where the Fed is out to exterminate them) and cause problems in other sectors that have not experienced pain yet.
I expect not one but TWO more shoes to drop in the market price. With this in mind, I'd be wary of any rallies and not fall victim to the mass media that may make the market seem safer than it really is. Currently, we are undergoing one of these hard-to-trust rallies. We may be setting up for the next drop, making this summer quite painful for some.
My final analysis: We are currently in the 3rd inning of this bear market. Get used to it and act accordingly.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wall Street
Market Columnist
I referred back to the previous bear market of 2000~2002. In that bear market, the sector with the most problem was technology. That honor goes to the financial sector in this bear market. So I've decided to compare technology sector of '00~'02 with financial sector '07~?. According to my assumptive calculations, it'd appear that we may be 75% complete in terms of price retracement and 50% complete in retracement time. What that means is that from the highs of late last year, the financial sector have dropped in price 3/4 of the way to the bottom. However, the speed of decline will decelerate and it'll take as long as it's taken so far to retrace 75%, to retrace the final 25%. That'd mean that the bottom in financials will be reached around the end of 2008. Now, that doesn't mean that it'll skyrocket from there on. The recovery process prior to regaining upside momentum will also take some time.
After comparing the two most critical sectors for the two bear markets, I, then, compared S&P500 for the two timeframes. It seems as though we are 50% complete in price retracement but only about 33% complete in retracement time. These numbers are significant because the general market will fare worse than the financial sector from here on out. Fundamentally, this logic would prove to be true as the credit problems will turn away from financials (where the Fed is out to exterminate them) and cause problems in other sectors that have not experienced pain yet.
I expect not one but TWO more shoes to drop in the market price. With this in mind, I'd be wary of any rallies and not fall victim to the mass media that may make the market seem safer than it really is. Currently, we are undergoing one of these hard-to-trust rallies. We may be setting up for the next drop, making this summer quite painful for some.
My final analysis: We are currently in the 3rd inning of this bear market. Get used to it and act accordingly.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wall Street
Market Columnist
R.C. Corner
Make money and the whole nation will conspire to call you a gentleman.
-- George Bernard Shaw
-- George Bernard Shaw
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Simon: Fishy Lehman Action
Very fishy activity going on in Lehman recently...check out the huge volume on the 30 put. that is not the most fishy thing.
Because i have a position in it, i was watching it tick by tick most of the day. The last 15 minutes was crazy. As SPX, DIA, and QQQQ fell to new lows, so did everything else, even GS and XLF...but one stock rose..and rose quite strong with big volume too...it was LEH. why the hell did it rise so much....i expected short covering to take profits...i didn't like the rise at all...
but wait...craziest shit is still to come!
after checking the charts, i checked options data. i got my may 30 put option for 3.70 at about 3:30 when LEH was 10% down. At the close with LEH down 8.9%, the same exact option had a bid / ask of 4.50-4.80...and of course the options volume jumped like crazy...when i bought, the options volume was about 8,000...thats 2x the open interest...a huge number...but after just 30 minutes, at the end of the day, the volume was 18,000+...very fishy action...
was it all insiders buying puts? it makes sense since LEH has consistantly showed weakness this week, with 5%+ down moves each of the past several days. BSC showed these very same signs of collapse the days before the news hit. lets see if options again tell the tape...what will the Najarian Bros say??? you know i'll be tuned in...
news after the bell was that BSC ceo sold off the rest of his shares for 10.83 (something like that) today...that news dropped BSC after hours but didn't move LEH after hours though....i guess that ain't the big news the put buyers were speculating
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Simon: Speculation Play - Nile Call
Possible short squeeze play in the works for Blue Nile. With so much short interest and a good looking chart, once Nile moves up, you can be sure that the short covering will race in and skyrocket the stock.
Huge Volume at the 55 calls and puts for this month. Whats going on? Huge straddle play going on. I won't be surprised to see news coming out of NILE in the coming days.
MACD is looking up, relative strength is great as of late compared to the S&P, and best of all, it has risen above the 50EMA plus the 20 and 50 EMA are starting to rise.
Check out the "Short Interest Ratio" of 11.2...thats crazy high. 5 is concidered a high ratio and on average, most companies don't even break 2.
Also look at the "Short % Increase"...the shorts have increased 13.07% ! thats huge!
Also look at the "Short % Increase"...the shorts have increased 13.07% ! thats huge!
Huge Volume at the 55 calls and puts for this month. Whats going on? Huge straddle play going on. I won't be surprised to see news coming out of NILE in the coming days.
MACD is looking up, relative strength is great as of late compared to the S&P, and best of all, it has risen above the 50EMA plus the 20 and 50 EMA are starting to rise.
Simon: LEH put options...what's going on????
Check out the 40 put which i owned. crazy 6.02% drop is the move today and the options price remained unchanged? What the fuck is wrong with this option? Huge volume, just out of the money, still have almost a month of time value, and it doesn't move? shit! In fact, when it pulled back to about 5% down intraday, the price was actually down 15 cents. Crazy! Can anyone explain this?
hypothesis: Implied Volatility is getting crushed for LEH and killing the premiums in the options.
Simon: The Winning Ticket - Paul / Pisani 2012!!!
"President Elect 2012"
Ron Paul - The Only Hope for a Great America
The Supporters
The Issues
1st Time on Leno
CNBC Interview on Abolishing the Fed
Ron Paul - The Only Hope for a Great America
The Supporters
The Issues
1st Time on Leno
CNBC Interview on Abolishing the Fed
Bob Pisani - The Smartest Man on Wall Street
Ms. Brennan - The First Lady of Financial TV
Simon: Now is the Time?
the timing of trades is definitely my foible. getting in too early and getting out too early are my reoccuring mistakes. but now i feel is the time to get in on the shorts i previously mentioned...JPM, GS, and XLF are great shorts...look at previous charts to see why...
technically, these shorts have finally been confirmed...
to be cautious, wait until end of day for more confirmation. market overall is not showing enough weakness in the daily chart to make these financial plays rewarding enough...
technically, these shorts have finally been confirmed...
to be cautious, wait until end of day for more confirmation. market overall is not showing enough weakness in the daily chart to make these financial plays rewarding enough...
Simon: Oil to 110?
Oil is finally back on track to 110...great! Stop at 100 a barrel...Buy on a pullback days...Dollar should continue weakness. Best thing about oil is that you don't have to worry about bullshit stimulus programs from the government (except rate cuts that kill dollar)
Monday, March 24, 2008
JP Morgan Chase - Trend is now unreliable
I woke up at 6:15am this morning in Kauai, Hawaii from my dad turning on the television. Bad news.
JP Morgan wants to buy Bear Stearns!!! Ugh. Big news like this could mean that all the past trends are no longer usable. I'm surprised that the stock price of JPM hasn't changed yet. Keep a lookout.
JP Morgan wants to buy Bear Stearns!!! Ugh. Big news like this could mean that all the past trends are no longer usable. I'm surprised that the stock price of JPM hasn't changed yet. Keep a lookout.
Simon: Market Outlook - Bearish
*note* - in the jpm chart, i mistakenly wrote that the oscillators are oversold. i wanted to type that they are overbought.
*another mistake* - thought that JPM was posted by RC...in fact it was Brian...either way, still a good put opportunity.
My analysis of the markets are about 70% technical, 25 % contrarian fundamental (using news to gauge the committment of the bulls and bears) and 5% instinctual gut (this 5 % assures that i will never be 100% confident on any of my predictions.
My positions are now officially 95% opposite of fellow analyst, Rino. These charts above show why i feel the way i do. I like financial and agricultural puts the most.
Best shorts:
MON, DE, C, CFC, LEH, SPY
Saturday, March 22, 2008
R.C. Corner
In this game, the market has to keep pitching, but you don't have to swing. You can stand there with the bat on your shoulder for six months until you get a fat pitch.
--- Warren Buffet
--- Warren Buffet
Thursday, March 20, 2008
That's predictable
Are some stocks more predictable than others?
Even with bouncebacks considered, some stocks are all over the place while others are on a smoother ride.
Let's compare two specific stocks. JP Morgam (JPM) and Sprint (S).
I'm at work right now so I can't upload pics, but I'll try to put something up later
JP....
is on a shallow downward trend since May '07, but there were still many small opportunities to play long. The stock price changes in a range of around 10%. Without exception, it takes no longer than 1/2 a month for the stock price to change drastically (10%). Another words, depending on when you bought it, you can expect it to skyrocket 10% or drop 10% in just 15 days! I'm so confident in this that if I saw sooner, I would have purchased this stock at its rock bottom of $36 and sold at $46. If the pattern continues, this stock will drop again in a couple weeks.
I'm very confident when it will drop.
How much it will drop is a bit more difficult to estimate.
If I know Simon's stocktrading style, this stock would be something worth a look at. Simon likes to buy long at the bottom of sideways moves hoping to get a touch of the bounceback. Though this stock is more on a downtrend than it is going sideways, the bouncebacks are huge and take only 15 days.
SPRINT....
There's almost no need to draw a trendline. The trend is down and it's dropping significantly with very few significant bouncebacks. This is definitely NOT something anyone should play long. No surprise there.
Brian
Even with bouncebacks considered, some stocks are all over the place while others are on a smoother ride.
Let's compare two specific stocks. JP Morgam (JPM) and Sprint (S).
I'm at work right now so I can't upload pics, but I'll try to put something up later
JP....
is on a shallow downward trend since May '07, but there were still many small opportunities to play long. The stock price changes in a range of around 10%. Without exception, it takes no longer than 1/2 a month for the stock price to change drastically (10%). Another words, depending on when you bought it, you can expect it to skyrocket 10% or drop 10% in just 15 days! I'm so confident in this that if I saw sooner, I would have purchased this stock at its rock bottom of $36 and sold at $46. If the pattern continues, this stock will drop again in a couple weeks.
I'm very confident when it will drop.
How much it will drop is a bit more difficult to estimate.
If I know Simon's stocktrading style, this stock would be something worth a look at. Simon likes to buy long at the bottom of sideways moves hoping to get a touch of the bounceback. Though this stock is more on a downtrend than it is going sideways, the bouncebacks are huge and take only 15 days.
SPRINT....
There's almost no need to draw a trendline. The trend is down and it's dropping significantly with very few significant bouncebacks. This is definitely NOT something anyone should play long. No surprise there.
Brian
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Short Term Trade
With the Bullish response today, a short term Long play may be feasible.
The level of approximately 1275 on S&P500 may act as Support (Green Arrow).
The level of approximately 1400 on S&P500 may act as Resistance (Red Arrow).
If this channel does prove to be reliable, meaning that the support and resistance act as such, then it'd be a good indicator to trade off of.
I highly doubt that we'll blast our way through the Resistance, so I'd be looking to short if we get near that level. The 200 Moving Average (Green Line) also happens to be in that neighborhood as well.
Meanwhile, I'd be a cautious buyer of Long positions during next couple of days on pullbacks.
Possible timeframe on the Long play: 2 weeks
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
Market Technician
Fed cuts 0.75%
The vote was 8-2 in favor of a 75pt cut with 2 votes for a smaller cut.
They emphasized slowing growth. (They choose not to cut 100pts)
They emphasized rising inflation. (They choose not to cut 50pts)
Once again, the Fed has decided to approach the problem with a wait and see attitude.
They've failed once again to aggressively address either issues.
As it is evident time after time, Ben Bernanke is set on trying to satisfy everyone and make compromises.
What to expect from here on?
1. The pre-existing trend of rising gold and oil prices, coupled with falling dollar will continue with Fed's timid approach.
2. More crises will unfold. More bank failures? Or perhaps a homebuilder this time. Who knows. But something will happen. Market will fall. And Fed will act in emergency.
3. The Fed will have less of an effect on the market. The market will go where it needs to go.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
On-air correspondent
They emphasized slowing growth. (They choose not to cut 100pts)
They emphasized rising inflation. (They choose not to cut 50pts)
Once again, the Fed has decided to approach the problem with a wait and see attitude.
They've failed once again to aggressively address either issues.
As it is evident time after time, Ben Bernanke is set on trying to satisfy everyone and make compromises.
What to expect from here on?
1. The pre-existing trend of rising gold and oil prices, coupled with falling dollar will continue with Fed's timid approach.
2. More crises will unfold. More bank failures? Or perhaps a homebuilder this time. Who knows. But something will happen. Market will fall. And Fed will act in emergency.
3. The Fed will have less of an effect on the market. The market will go where it needs to go.
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
On-air correspondent
No Bottom In Sight...Yet
After what may have looked like the set up to a bloodiest market open in years, we ended with the Dow UP 20 points!?!
Sunday night, real panic started to amount with headlines of Asian markets shaving 4-5%, and of course the news of Bear Stearns being taken away for a mere $2/share. The Futures prior to market open, showed a -300 pts on the Dow index. So what happened? Are we at a bottom now? Has the market sentiment changed from bearish to bullish?
Here's why I think it'd be foolish to enter long positions right now.
President Bush, Hank Paulson & Ben Bernanke had a meeting this morning. Those three men, individually and collectively, have made this credit crisis worsen. President Bush does not want to admit fault while he's in the White House. So he's decided to take on the role of showing strength in the midst of economic crisis, which is quite admirable. However, he either doesn't understand the severity of the problem or doesn't care to fix it. For the other two men, they had to make a decision of either dealing with slowing growth & credit issue or rising inflation issue. By continuously cutting interest rates and adding liquidity to the market, they've decided to tackle the slowing growth and credit issue first. However, there's a strange trend that's developing everytime we hear of Fed intervention. When the Fed act, they are referred to as the white knight that's come to save the day. To SAVE companies and people from danger. It may sound like they are doing a great job of saving the market from crashing but why not act so that they don't have to SAVE it all the time.
Take past few days for instance. Fed acted last Tuesday to make $200 billion available for companies to loan. The market popped cheering hooray! Some investors came in thinking we are either at or near bottom. But if you think about it, after Ambak deal disappeared like smoke, they had to make a move to save the market. Now Bear Stearns goes down and they make very urgent moves to prevent a catastrophy in the market today. They managed to succeed in doing that, but once again, they acted because they had to. If you've decided to tackle a problem, why not act to prevent it. It's been said on CNBC that had the Fed acted in this manner a week ago, Bear Stearns would not have gone out of business.
Why didn't they cut by larger percentages sooner if we are going to go down to possibly less than 2% lending rate anyway. Why say that you'll act 'if or as necessary' when the necessity for their action has been here all along? They have been behind the problem and continue to lag. Come Tuesday morning, the Fed may announce anywhere from a 0.50% to 1.25% cut in interest rates. I think it really doesn't matter. We've seen this before and everytime, the stock market falls. It may take a day, two days, or maybe a week. But the initial positive reaction to the news in the market will disappear until market makes a technical bottom. Look back to the 400pt move in the Dow last Tuesday, or the great reversal that happened last Thursday to end higher after being down -200pts. Where are we now? Again testing the lows of January, and again hoping for the Fed to rescue us. It is time to stop believing these rallies. If you are an aggressive trader and you know what you are getting into, then feel free to play the bounce. But for those who thinks this is time to go in and hold for next 3-5 years, your timing will most likely bring some pain.
However, the real pain isn't here yet. People talk about the overly bearish sentiment on Wallstreet and it's true. We'll have a short term recovery shortly. But hardly anyone outside of wallstreet or those who trade for living like Titans of Wallstreet worry about the market and the economy. Most people aren't aware of the significance of Bear Stearns going out of business. Most people don't know about the impact of interest rate cuts. Some people will talk about high oil and gold prices but they don't know why or how everything they purchase from a supermarket has doubled in price. It is only when the general public becomes aware of credit and inflationary issues that we'll reach a bottom in the market. The end of the Bull market came when literally everyone cared to give me their opinion on the market, some even stock recommendations, upon hearing my decision to become a trader. Everyone talked about google and apple stocks rising. Similarly, we need for everyone to feel that you can do nothing but lose money by investing in the market. The negative underlying sentiment that people have on the practice of Investing in Stocks will rise to the surface. That's when Titans of Wallstreet will prepare for the arrival of the new baby Bull as the three wise men did for baby Jesus.
Until then, this Bear is here to stay.
I have not exited from my short positions. My S&P 500 downside target remains at 1240 on the close. (currently 1276)
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
Senior Market Columnist
Sunday night, real panic started to amount with headlines of Asian markets shaving 4-5%, and of course the news of Bear Stearns being taken away for a mere $2/share. The Futures prior to market open, showed a -300 pts on the Dow index. So what happened? Are we at a bottom now? Has the market sentiment changed from bearish to bullish?
Here's why I think it'd be foolish to enter long positions right now.
President Bush, Hank Paulson & Ben Bernanke had a meeting this morning. Those three men, individually and collectively, have made this credit crisis worsen. President Bush does not want to admit fault while he's in the White House. So he's decided to take on the role of showing strength in the midst of economic crisis, which is quite admirable. However, he either doesn't understand the severity of the problem or doesn't care to fix it. For the other two men, they had to make a decision of either dealing with slowing growth & credit issue or rising inflation issue. By continuously cutting interest rates and adding liquidity to the market, they've decided to tackle the slowing growth and credit issue first. However, there's a strange trend that's developing everytime we hear of Fed intervention. When the Fed act, they are referred to as the white knight that's come to save the day. To SAVE companies and people from danger. It may sound like they are doing a great job of saving the market from crashing but why not act so that they don't have to SAVE it all the time.
Take past few days for instance. Fed acted last Tuesday to make $200 billion available for companies to loan. The market popped cheering hooray! Some investors came in thinking we are either at or near bottom. But if you think about it, after Ambak deal disappeared like smoke, they had to make a move to save the market. Now Bear Stearns goes down and they make very urgent moves to prevent a catastrophy in the market today. They managed to succeed in doing that, but once again, they acted because they had to. If you've decided to tackle a problem, why not act to prevent it. It's been said on CNBC that had the Fed acted in this manner a week ago, Bear Stearns would not have gone out of business.
Why didn't they cut by larger percentages sooner if we are going to go down to possibly less than 2% lending rate anyway. Why say that you'll act 'if or as necessary' when the necessity for their action has been here all along? They have been behind the problem and continue to lag. Come Tuesday morning, the Fed may announce anywhere from a 0.50% to 1.25% cut in interest rates. I think it really doesn't matter. We've seen this before and everytime, the stock market falls. It may take a day, two days, or maybe a week. But the initial positive reaction to the news in the market will disappear until market makes a technical bottom. Look back to the 400pt move in the Dow last Tuesday, or the great reversal that happened last Thursday to end higher after being down -200pts. Where are we now? Again testing the lows of January, and again hoping for the Fed to rescue us. It is time to stop believing these rallies. If you are an aggressive trader and you know what you are getting into, then feel free to play the bounce. But for those who thinks this is time to go in and hold for next 3-5 years, your timing will most likely bring some pain.
However, the real pain isn't here yet. People talk about the overly bearish sentiment on Wallstreet and it's true. We'll have a short term recovery shortly. But hardly anyone outside of wallstreet or those who trade for living like Titans of Wallstreet worry about the market and the economy. Most people aren't aware of the significance of Bear Stearns going out of business. Most people don't know about the impact of interest rate cuts. Some people will talk about high oil and gold prices but they don't know why or how everything they purchase from a supermarket has doubled in price. It is only when the general public becomes aware of credit and inflationary issues that we'll reach a bottom in the market. The end of the Bull market came when literally everyone cared to give me their opinion on the market, some even stock recommendations, upon hearing my decision to become a trader. Everyone talked about google and apple stocks rising. Similarly, we need for everyone to feel that you can do nothing but lose money by investing in the market. The negative underlying sentiment that people have on the practice of Investing in Stocks will rise to the surface. That's when Titans of Wallstreet will prepare for the arrival of the new baby Bull as the three wise men did for baby Jesus.
Until then, this Bear is here to stay.
I have not exited from my short positions. My S&P 500 downside target remains at 1240 on the close. (currently 1276)
Rino Choi
Titans of Wallstreet
Senior Market Columnist
Monday, March 17, 2008
Simon: Bold Predictions
Zoom into the above charts to view my analysis. On friday, looking at only daily charts of the VIX and TNX, i couldn't help but feel bullish on the upcoming week...after more careful analysis of the weekly charts and daily charts of some of my favorite stocks, i come to the conclusion that this week will be a total disaster in the markets. Despite all the talk of the markets being oversold, oscillators still show that they are just in a healthy downtrend. Many many bears out there but they are out there because its a bear market. It is natural for the fear factor to be so high. In fact, i see new highs in the VIX to come because when looking at the markets on a very long time frame, this recession is only getting started. Once the FED gives up, stops lowering rates, and the dollar starts to bottom, then more optimism will come. It is just hard to see this as not being way oversold because we have gotten used to the bullish times and forgot all about the major recessions of the past. By the end of the week, i might sound like the biggest goof on wall street...or come out wise as hell. Either way, my prediction stands...
Below are positions i am looking into (placed in no particular order)
short EEM below 130 close
short LEH
short AMZN below 67.5 close
long FXP above 110 close
short FXI below 130 close
long USO
Saturday, March 15, 2008
R.C. Corner
There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
--- Jesse Livermore
--- Jesse Livermore
Friday, March 14, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Simon: Sell USO 3/12
Its time to sell USO. the weekly price target has been met. I am getting out of my call option expiring next week. My expectations are that a pause or pullback will occur from here. either way, its not the ideal time to hold. very overbought with good spot for a pause. Taking profits is said to be the best way to be a loser in the longterm, but i think there are exceptions. Highly volatile and overly bullish and bearish sentiment are reasons to take profits. They are the times when profits cannot be let to run indefinitely.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Simon: Clarity in Technicals - 3/11
today's huge up move might have come as a surprise to many, but to the best technicians (me EXcluded), it was very clear. today's news moved the market right? I don't beleive so. Supply, Demand, and Price moves the market. The news is always just convieniently around so that the media has something to talk about.
Yesterday, technical signals hit in all directions. the best 2 signals are in the graphs below. LEH was my holding and a good indicator of the financial sector and SPX is usually the most technially sound of all the indexes. together, or even individually, it told us to be more cautious with our short sells and its not a bad time to either lighten up on our shorts or take a gamble on a long position.
Yesterday, technical signals hit in all directions. the best 2 signals are in the graphs below. LEH was my holding and a good indicator of the financial sector and SPX is usually the most technially sound of all the indexes. together, or even individually, it told us to be more cautious with our short sells and its not a bad time to either lighten up on our shorts or take a gamble on a long position.
So what did i do? Trying a new thing, i sold nothing. i held ground. i held my stops. I didn't take profits. I'll be holding all my positions until i get stopped out. No panic selling tomorrow.
Below shows my view on where the market will go next. Purely just a prediction. More validation tomorrow is key.
Bashful Bulls EXCLUSIVE: For now, i am looking into a long position in MOS or POT. (bonus chart below).
Google, something to think about, by Brian Quan
Stock prices fluctuate based on buyers/seller perception rather than stock performance right? So unless people's perception on the Google stock changes drastically, we can expect to see similar patterns in the future as we have witnessed in the past. Let's look at some patterns to see how true this could be. (Everything I post from here on out will assume cash trade going long.)
Looking back 3 yrs, I've noticed compared to other stocks, Google seems to be quite consistant.
- Sideways moves within the $25-30 zone typically last no more than 2 months.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
This means that unless the spread of the uptrend/downtrend exceeds $25-30 or it lasts longer than 2 months, it's still a sizeways move. Price is very likely to bounce back within that range. As soon as the price exceeds that amount, we can expect a trend to follow. This is true even of the most recent drop in share price from $750-$425. Immediately after it dropped by $30/share in the beginning of January, it continued to fall....hard. Once the trend starts, I cannot predict how long the trend will last with any certainty that applies in all cases.
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT:
If you purchased at the top of a sideways move on the 3rd month and see your stock price fall more than $30, it not likely to come back up at least until the downtrend bottoms out.
- $80-$100 drop is typical in the beginning of the yr. Return in stock price takes at least 4.5 months.
It's happened 3 yrs in a row. After the '06 drop, it took almost a yr to come back up to the high of that yr. In '07, 6 months. In 2008?...I project it will take even longer. The drop this yr was huge.
MY PREDICTION:
It's been 2.5 months since the annual January drop. I predict it will take at least that much longer to come back up. Even if stock are bottoming out now and Google begins an uptrend tomorrow, I don't expect to see prices nearing $700 until at least April.
Looking back 3 yrs, I've noticed compared to other stocks, Google seems to be quite consistant.
- Sideways moves within the $25-30 zone typically last no more than 2 months.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
This means that unless the spread of the uptrend/downtrend exceeds $25-30 or it lasts longer than 2 months, it's still a sizeways move. Price is very likely to bounce back within that range. As soon as the price exceeds that amount, we can expect a trend to follow. This is true even of the most recent drop in share price from $750-$425. Immediately after it dropped by $30/share in the beginning of January, it continued to fall....hard. Once the trend starts, I cannot predict how long the trend will last with any certainty that applies in all cases.
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT:
If you purchased at the top of a sideways move on the 3rd month and see your stock price fall more than $30, it not likely to come back up at least until the downtrend bottoms out.
- $80-$100 drop is typical in the beginning of the yr. Return in stock price takes at least 4.5 months.
It's happened 3 yrs in a row. After the '06 drop, it took almost a yr to come back up to the high of that yr. In '07, 6 months. In 2008?...I project it will take even longer. The drop this yr was huge.
MY PREDICTION:
It's been 2.5 months since the annual January drop. I predict it will take at least that much longer to come back up. Even if stock are bottoming out now and Google begins an uptrend tomorrow, I don't expect to see prices nearing $700 until at least April.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Give me some of that Apple by Brian Quan
It looks like some uncertainty in the Apple stock. We're moving sideways! Buyers and sellers are fighting. The trend looks clear cut since the end of January. Let's sit back and see who wins. I wouldn't buy at this point. It can easily go either way.
The game's being played between $115 and $130. I'm hesitant to predict an uptrend or downtrend until we see it fall further from the spread. Even then, the market's still down. Could we be flattening out soon?....as far as Apple is concerned? The last time we were this flat in the Apple stock was in June of 2007....at the same price! There was another low in mid August at the same price again. And now we're at $120 for the 3rd time in 6 months. What does this mean????
It means Apple's stock is getting ready for a change! For better or worse. Let's wait and see.
The game's being played between $115 and $130. I'm hesitant to predict an uptrend or downtrend until we see it fall further from the spread. Even then, the market's still down. Could we be flattening out soon?....as far as Apple is concerned? The last time we were this flat in the Apple stock was in June of 2007....at the same price! There was another low in mid August at the same price again. And now we're at $120 for the 3rd time in 6 months. What does this mean????
It means Apple's stock is getting ready for a change! For better or worse. Let's wait and see.
The Fall of Google by Brian Quan
Is Google a victim of the market fall or is Google causing the market drop?
This giant won't tank, but boy is it falling hard. Am I reading this right? $418.35 Remind me where we were around Christmas time. There was a reason to be happy during the holiday season. Google was priced at over $700.
Should we have guessed that from November to December, we were witnessing a lateral move by Google? The drops never last long. 3 months at the most. But the scary part is that not only is it falling....it's falling fast. We just fell below the 200 MA in early February.
We may see a rebound sometime this week. Whether or not that happens, the stock looks like it will still drop further. If it drops to $380, like I predicted earlier, I'd be worried. And what if it drops to the 2006 lows of the $200 range?
Though Google's a strong company, I don't see it hitting hits high mark of $750 for another yr or more. The stock dropped from $700's earlier this yr just as fast as it flew up in September of 2006. I think that was a fluke. It didn't follow the trend. When the normal trend that has formed during the previous 3 yrs comes into play, I think we may see $650. Depending on how much further it drops in the next couple of months, $650 may not look familiar again for another couple of yrs. Hmmm......I hope I'm wrong.
This giant won't tank, but boy is it falling hard. Am I reading this right? $418.35 Remind me where we were around Christmas time. There was a reason to be happy during the holiday season. Google was priced at over $700.
Should we have guessed that from November to December, we were witnessing a lateral move by Google? The drops never last long. 3 months at the most. But the scary part is that not only is it falling....it's falling fast. We just fell below the 200 MA in early February.
We may see a rebound sometime this week. Whether or not that happens, the stock looks like it will still drop further. If it drops to $380, like I predicted earlier, I'd be worried. And what if it drops to the 2006 lows of the $200 range?
Though Google's a strong company, I don't see it hitting hits high mark of $750 for another yr or more. The stock dropped from $700's earlier this yr just as fast as it flew up in September of 2006. I think that was a fluke. It didn't follow the trend. When the normal trend that has formed during the previous 3 yrs comes into play, I think we may see $650. Depending on how much further it drops in the next couple of months, $650 may not look familiar again for another couple of yrs. Hmmm......I hope I'm wrong.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Time to Buy Google? by Brian Quan
No. Not yet. Not long anyway...
It looks like it will continue to fall to $380 at which point it will either continue falling or rebound. This should happen in 3-4 weeks. I'm guessing it will keep dropping. Scary thought. It's been a hard hit since the days of share prices of $740. And that was only last November.
Hmmm. Doesn't this $380 mark sound all too familiar? Is that number not too far off from the IPO when it first came out?
It looks like it will continue to fall to $380 at which point it will either continue falling or rebound. This should happen in 3-4 weeks. I'm guessing it will keep dropping. Scary thought. It's been a hard hit since the days of share prices of $740. And that was only last November.
Hmmm. Doesn't this $380 mark sound all too familiar? Is that number not too far off from the IPO when it first came out?
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Conspiracy Theory
Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed rate cuts +
Charlie Gasparino and the Ambac news headlines
vs
Housing Crisis
Credit/Mortgage Mess
Economic Slowdown
&
Rising Inflation
It's not hard to identify which of those market moving catalysts are superficial from those that are not.
In a perfect world, or perhaps in a non-election year, the market would be well on its way to completing the inevitable downtrend. Instead, what we have today is a government that is slowing down the spread of the problem instead of fixing the problem.
The market rallied late in the day, again, on the speculative news that the deal to save Ambac is progressing and could be finalized as soon as this afternoon if not tomorrow morning. Not to blame Gasparino for being chosen to cover this issue, but the timing of his appearances today and two fridays ago could not be just a coincidence. On both days, market was getting beaten down by bad economic news, and heading into the close you'd think that it'd just fall 100-200 more pts on top of 200 pt loss already registered. Then with the flashing sign of Breaking News Alert on CNBC, Ambac news propels the market higher into the close, wiping out much of the day's decline.
This single report that's created two artificial supports thus far, is serving the Fed as an alternative measure to stop the bleeding without having to actually cut rates. Because, let's face it, the Fed can only cut so many points off the funds rate. Investors are already projecting a .75pt basis cut on March 18 which would bring it down to 2.25%. With rising inflation, it's hard to imagine the rate being under 2%. So the Fed doesn't have much to work with here. You've got the stimulus package plan due out in May, putting $300 in most Americans' pockets. But the effects of that won't be seen until companies report their 3rd quarter earnings at the earliest. Until then, there's not much for the Fed to do.
However, they can use the optimism created by the possibility of a mortgage insurer bailout plan, constantly using it without ever leading it into completion. The market will be stuck in a range leaving traders confused and uninformed. Nonethless, there's no need for the deal to finalize in a hurry. The credit rating agencies have nothing to gain from taking away their AAA rating. So they'll most likely just reject one proposal after another buying them time and buying the government time. Meanwhile, Buffet is probably taking away a huge chunk of their business away. So even after this deal is done, I wonder how big of an effect it'll have on the overall economy.
As a holder of several short positions, I am not happy with government interventions. Market trends get broken into nasty consolidation patterns which bring more pain than gain. Even aside from looking out for my personal welfare, it's sad to see the economy heading deeper into a hole being aggrevated by the ones that are being paid to prevent such an event from occurring.
Numerous "GREEN" campaigns inspired people to address the necessity for alternative energy, but are failing to address the victims of famine and poverty caused by the use of biofuel as an energy source. The Fed is emphasizing the need to revive the slowing economic growth, while neglecting to recognize rising inflation and the destruction of our national currency.
It is just a matter of time. The longer the delay, the harder the fall.
Rino Choi
Senior Market Columnist
Titans of Wallstreet
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