That's predictable

Are some stocks more predictable than others?

Even with bouncebacks considered, some stocks are all over the place while others are on a smoother ride.

Let's compare two specific stocks. JP Morgam (JPM) and Sprint (S).
I'm at work right now so I can't upload pics, but I'll try to put something up later

JP....
is on a shallow downward trend since May '07, but there were still many small opportunities to play long. The stock price changes in a range of around 10%. Without exception, it takes no longer than 1/2 a month for the stock price to change drastically (10%). Another words, depending on when you bought it, you can expect it to skyrocket 10% or drop 10% in just 15 days! I'm so confident in this that if I saw sooner, I would have purchased this stock at its rock bottom of $36 and sold at $46. If the pattern continues, this stock will drop again in a couple weeks.

I'm very confident when it will drop.
How much it will drop is a bit more difficult to estimate.

If I know Simon's stocktrading style, this stock would be something worth a look at. Simon likes to buy long at the bottom of sideways moves hoping to get a touch of the bounceback. Though this stock is more on a downtrend than it is going sideways, the bouncebacks are huge and take only 15 days.

SPRINT....
There's almost no need to draw a trendline. The trend is down and it's dropping significantly with very few significant bouncebacks. This is definitely NOT something anyone should play long. No surprise there.

Brian