Monday, March 17, 2008

Simon: Bold Predictions




Zoom into the above charts to view my analysis. On friday, looking at only daily charts of the VIX and TNX, i couldn't help but feel bullish on the upcoming week...after more careful analysis of the weekly charts and daily charts of some of my favorite stocks, i come to the conclusion that this week will be a total disaster in the markets. Despite all the talk of the markets being oversold, oscillators still show that they are just in a healthy downtrend. Many many bears out there but they are out there because its a bear market. It is natural for the fear factor to be so high. In fact, i see new highs in the VIX to come because when looking at the markets on a very long time frame, this recession is only getting started. Once the FED gives up, stops lowering rates, and the dollar starts to bottom, then more optimism will come. It is just hard to see this as not being way oversold because we have gotten used to the bullish times and forgot all about the major recessions of the past. By the end of the week, i might sound like the biggest goof on wall street...or come out wise as hell. Either way, my prediction stands...

Below are positions i am looking into (placed in no particular order)

short EEM below 130 close
short LEH
short AMZN below 67.5 close
long FXP above 110 close
short FXI below 130 close
long USO

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