Wednesday, May 20, 2009

5/20 - Market Analysis (stage 4a)

SPX - start of the fall?


SPY - short term head and shoulders


SPY - possible support


RKH - lower high possible here


VIX - held off support on a closing basis


ETFs - financials worst


HEAT


Analysis: overall, the intraday move and the possible lower high looks very bearish...but for some reason, i feel like i am too bearish...RKH fell under its 30min EMAs which is bearish but SPY and QQQQ are holding up strong...still keeping its uptrend line actually...so i wonder what will happen tomorrow...i definitely have many more short setups in my watchlist than long setups....usually its a good indicator of whats to come...but i definitely should resist from getting too bearish until we get a confirmation that we have a lower high...and for that, we need support to breakdown on big volume...if that happens tomorrow, i won't hold back any bearishness...but for now, i am scared to committ my stance to 100% bear...in actuality, we might still go back up tomorrow to shake out some people and retest the highs before even falling down again...

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