Tuesday, May 5, 2009

5/5 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance?


SPY - bullish


COMPQ - resistance?


DJIA - resistance?


RKH - resistance?


IWM - resistance?


MDY - resistance


OIH - resistance


ETFs - mainly sideways


HEAT - profit taking


Analysis: a scenario i thought was possible over the weekend when i looked over the weekly chart is that we can go up the first few days, then drift sideways and slightly down by the end of the week giving us a doji at resistance on the weekly chart...then we start to fall hard...no guarantees of course as nothing has yet hinted to me that that is the most likely scenario...as today was just a pause day, i decided to not look at the usual 6 month chart, but instead look at the 8 month chart to find older resistance that maybe other traders ignored as well...and as i look, the more i realize that EVERY chart is at resistance...before, when SPX was on big resistance at 875, COMPQ has no resistance...so this time might actually be a bigger resistance than even be4...and psychologically it makes a lot of sense...i think that the 875 mark was very obvious and therefore very obvious to others too...these new levels of resistance are not so obvious...making it very possible to blindside many traders and in turn cause indecision (weekly doji) and a subsequent hard fall from scared traders wanting to keep as much of their gains as possible...but overall, i am looking to go long for now instead of short as my analysis ain't showing many good short setups...

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