Thursday, May 14, 2009

5/14 - Market Analysis (stage 1)

SPX - holds support


SPY - still bearish


COMPQ - bull / bear


IWM - bull / bear


RKH - holds support


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs - financial led rally


HEAT - all financials


Analysis: today shows either a pause day for the bears...or it might mean the test and hold of support hinting to more upside to come after this short pullback back to the channel support...got reasons to think bull or bear...as for stock setups...i think its about 50/50...better risk/ reward in bear setups for sure...basically at this moment, the ball is in the bull's court...they need to prove that the trend is not over...if it holds tomorrow and breaks above resistance and makes either a higher low or higher high, the markets will no longer be bearish...but for now, its still safe to hold shorts as we are in a good streak of lower lows and highs...and please keep in mind that we might just run into a trading range for the next few weeks with this as the bottom support as summer is coming and traders might just want to take a breather...its the scenario i like the least but its also very likely

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