6/16 - Market Analysis (stage 4)

SPX - pullback confirmed


SPY - watching this trendline


RKH - bearish (slight)


VIX - huge break of resistance...bearish signal


ETFs - momentum stocks lag


HEAT - all red except in the safety of pharma


ISEE - put buying throughout the day


Analysis: definitely tough to get too bearish here...the volume is so light that even a breakdown of short term support and lower lows and highs on SPY doesn't mean that we will trade in a very exciting way...maybe the summer duldrums have just brainwashed me into thinking that it will be boring for a longtime...but thats how i interpretting the charts...we are pulling back..and its healthy...but 61% fib is nearby and the volume is so light that much committment by the sellers don't seem convincing enough to get super happy for my bearish side...but definitely don't go long here...just try to pick up some chump change with this near-term pullback...

6/15 - Market Analysis

SPX - side


SPY - breakdown


QQQQ - healthy pullback


QQQQ 30 - bearish signal friday


RKH - side


VIX - resistance


VIX - bullish now but ready to pullback


ETFs - everything down


HEAT - all deep in the red



Analysis: seems like today will be a bullshit move with no followthrough...definitely getting the feeling that we are just going to pullback tomorrow and make today nothing...unless something major is broken soon, definitely more than likely that we are just widening the range but still trading within the range

6/12 - Market Analysis (stage 3)

SPX week - decreasing volume


SPX - resistance


SPY - breakout or fakeout?


RKH - side


UUP - bearish pullbacl


VIX - support? don't think so yet


ETFs - no idea why utilities so strong lately


HEAT - mixed


Analysis: hard to say whats going on...SPY's 30 chart best demonstrates my feelings towards the market...basically we can go either direction...i think this week will show a lot on what will happen...unless of course we just trade sideways like we did all of last week...volume will probably continue to be light but i have a good feeling that this week is gonna have better moves than the last week as RKH needs to breakout soon...

6/11 - Market Analysis

SPX - side...increasing volume

SPY - bullish, resistance now support?


RKH - side


UNG - huge volume...important triangle


VIX - still bearish


ETFs


HEAT - bullish mix


Analysis: ok...today was weird...finally a fall into the close...but it came way too late...SPY made its mark today breaking out if its triangle and now its right on the breakout level as a textbook retest of breakout...smart investors are getting excited just thinking about buying like crazy at the open tomorrow...looks very bullish to me....so why why why are we still rallying so late into this rally? i heard a view from a blog today that i really liked...he said that the strength is from the fund managers who were doubting the bear market rally and are now trying to get any piece of the rally before they have to face their clients...they are struggling to keep this market higher and doing a decent job at it...scared off the bears for sure...so what we will probably have is one last leg up from these latecomers, then a real pullback...but for now, bulls won...unless, of course, we get surprised by the bears tomorrow...

6/10 - Market Analysis

SPX - range with more volume


SPY - perfect triangle holding


RKH - tight range getting tighter


USO - bullish new high


GLD - ready to go higher


UUP - ready to go lower


VIX - bearish, SPX bullish


ETFs - financials lag...energy and tech lead


HEAT - a bearish mix


Analysis: i have to say that today is a minor victory for the bears...in fact, it was so minor that i might just call it a victory for the bulls...support held on the 30min and VIX made yet another lower high on the 30"...uso went up and the dollar continues to look weak...jim rogers is looking like the oracle and we seemed doomed as a nation as we see the dollar weaken, oil up, and yet we are still in a recession with slowing growth and record layoffs...now that the dollar is near dead, we honestly have nothing left for us except bonds...sooner or later that will be worthless like the dollar, then we will totally be screwed...congrats obama...but back to stocks...in the shortrun, we look very poised to breakout very very soon...i am leaning slightly to a breakout than a breakdown..the mood and the movement in stocks, uso, and vix just are too much for me to beleive we will go down...get ready for when we breakout because it should be huge...

6/9 - Market Analysis (stage 3c)

SPX - side on light volume


SPY - triangle holds


RKH - triangle


USO - 1st test of resistance holds


UNG - trying to bounce from support


VIX - most bullish signal out there


ETFs - correct sectors leading


HEAT - totally mixed


Analysis: VIX makes me believe that we are going to head higher...its often a leading indicator so i can't help but give it much emphasis in my analysis. the next piece of the puzzle would be to have a move up on better volume. with such like volume, we might just stay sideways for a while longer. unless vix makes a big reversal tomorrow, i expect UNG to rise and SPX to follow right behind...COMPQ prob be the strongest index as it has the least resistance...but if we stay within the triangle on the 30min, i suspect that the earliest we breakout is friday or monday...bears had so many opportunities to pull the indexes down but it hasn't been doing anything...another reason why its safe to be bullish...

6/8 - Market Analysis

SPX - light volume doji


SPY - triangle yet again


DJIA - super low volume


RKH - side still


UNG - side triangle


VIX - resistance


ETFs - financials relatively strong all day


HEAT - financials lead but all and all mixed


Analysis: another mixed day...only difference is that the volume was even lighter...lightest volume of the year...hard to say where it would go...would have been easier if we just stayed at the lows today...but instead we have doji at resistance...i guess its still safer to be bullish than bearish...just hope we don't stay rangebound on light volume for the rest of the week...

6/5 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance


SPY - uptrend intact


RKH - side


RKH 30 - very side


USO - resistance


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs - financials lag


HEAT - very mixed


ISEE - bearish


Analysis: very mixed day today...Q's and SPY down and only DIA up...but overall, it was a pause day trading in a tight range all day...the more i look at the charts the more i see the resistance looking strong and consistent among the charts...i've felt this way many times in the past, therefore i am hesistant to predict a big reversal just yet...but its seems quite likely now...only thing is that COMPQ is way above resistance and doesn't seem to be slowing down yet...oil is my biggest reason now for thinking this pause area will result in a drop in the charts...definitely feeling confused as to what will happen next...

6/4 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance from highs


SPY - still higher highs and lows


COMPQ - no resistance yet


COMPQ 30 - bullish



RKH - sideways ready to breakout of the range


VIX - ???


ETFs - financials, xlb, and xle lead...just like the olds times when the rally was strong


HEAT - safety stocks lag...normal on an up day


Analysis: so easy just to keep doubting the trend...but its also so easy to see how strong the market is...its crazy...every pullback is met with some buying...dunno where all the demand is coming from but u have to respect it to survive in this environment...most bullish thing has got to be the bears...they are daytrading...they have no committment...today is one of the first times in above a week where financials led...thats bullish..also bullish is that oil is back at making higher highs and materials is following its lead...overall, its good to just stay bullish til we have some huge volume day that just bursted the bull bubble...so far though, no predictions of when that will come...

6/3 - Market Analysis (stage 3)

SPX - resistance?


SPY - broke the trendline on a 31% fib retracement


COMPQ - still bullish


RKH - support


VIX - ???


ETFs - energy took a big hit


HEAT - more bearish than the numbers suggest


Analysis: at some moments of the day, i felt that we were just gonna break down hard and reverse...but with the EOD push up, i started to beleive more and more that today was just an ideal pullback in yet another blip in a long uptrend...but if everything falls apart tomorrow with RKH, i will doubt the bullishness once again...

6/2 - Market Analysis (stage 3b)

SPX - still bullish


SPY - tight range


RKH - support needs to hold


RKH 30 - range


VIX - support holding


ETFs - financials lag yet again


HEAT - scan looks quite bearish to me...don't think materials can keep up the market


Analysis: market looking real susceptible for a strong pullback...might get down to 66% fib on the 30min chart if support fails...RKH lagging and VIX holding up support makes me feel that this last leg up might be a fakeout and the market might actually fall hard here and surprise and scare all the relaxed, lazy, piggy bulls out there...not ready to confirm this yet but definitely looking possible...i'm long, so i hope it doesn't happen, but who knows...definitely not the time to get lazy with analysis...

6/1 - Market Analysis

SPX - bullish


SPY - bullish


COMPQ - bullish


RKH - pulled back


VIX - bearish divergence


ETFs - financials lag


HEAT - why financials so weak?


ISEE - bearish divergence


Analysis: bullish price moves as we broke above all resistance...but there definitely has to be mentioned that we have some bearish indicators...in fact, we have 3 big ones...the vix, ISEE, and rkh screenshots all indicate that we should be skeptical...it all depends if we can hold up tomorrow or lose it all tomorrow...can all this happen just because of GM's bankruptcy? thats all i heard all day...also note that volume is good but not nearly as huge as what i expected from a breakout of such a strong resistance level...definitely ok to be cautious going into tomorrow...

5/29 - Market Analysis

SPX - bullish but near resistance


SPY - more bullish


RKH - need confirmation


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs


HEAT


Analysis: quite a bullish day...broke out of the consolidation range made by the triangle...which is definitely much more bullish than bearish...what i don't know is whether resistance holds and we are still back in the rectangle consolidation pattern or whether we are going higher, validating the symmetrical triangle pattern i noted yesterday...either way, the bulls are definitely are more in control than the bears...even my chart scans showed many more bullish setups than bearish...

5/28 - Market Analysis

SPX - side but maybe bullish flag forming


SPY - symmetrical (bullish) triangle


RKH - side


VIX - side


ETFs


HEAT - financials very impressive


Analysis: seems destined to just flow sideways until we break out of this pattern...very likely to get a false break today that might just break for reals on monday if we get a super weak volume day tomorrow...this real breakout should have good volume and emotion...anything less is probably just a headfake put on by day traders...

5/27 - Market Analysis (stage 3c)

SPX - side


SPY - side


COMPQ - side


RKH - support at light volume


USO - bullish divergence


VIX - finding suport?


ETFs - important sectors lagged


HEAT - first time in a long time where EVERY sector down, even safety sectors


Analysis: ok...as for the fall today, that was pretty evident to anybody watching the shorter term charts...the resistance was very clear but the fall definitely happened faster and was stronger than i expected...the smart guys prob sold right at the top and shorted it on the way down...tomorrow, a bullish scenario would be a pop up giving us a very short term higher low, but more likely that we will fall more tomorrow and straddle support...might even sit on it with a very boring day friday...then next week i think is where we will try to make some bigger directional moves...volume definitely is too light to move in one direction for longer than a few days...USO is kind of making me feel that i might just get surprised by the bulls soon...

5/26 - Market Analysis

SPX - side


SPY - side


COMPQ - side


RKH - up


VIX - SPX bullish


ETFs


HEAT - important sectors rally


Analysis: overall, it seems like we will just trade sideways these next few trading sessions...so either u just stock pick for the best trades for a trade that might last a day or 2 at best...or u just hang around waiting for us to breakout...problem is that the breakout might take longer than a few days as we are now in summer...the time when traders take it easy and volume decreases...

5/22 - Market Analysis (stage 1)

SPX Weekly - resistance


SPX - support


SPY 30 - side


RKH - support


UUP - support


VIX - resistance


ETFs


HEAT - money out of financials and confused in other sectors


Analysis: Confusion i think is the main theme...feel that we will just go sideways these next couple days unless we somehow get a surprise and shoot below support. Looks more likely that after this consolidation phase that we will go lower but for now, its still very tough to step in front and short the hell out of the market as we still haven't made a lower low yet...

5/21 - Market Analysis

SPX - tough support ahead


SPY - dunno if we can break down here...more likely rebound tomorrow


RKH - hella strong support


RKH 30 - if bounces, we will most likely sidetrend a few days


VIX - still downtrending...needs atleast a 2x bottom before reversal


ETFs - financials strong..bad for bears


HEAT - whats with financials?


Analysis: dunno why financials doing better...but i can see why it is more bullish than bearish...if the bulls cannot even push down the financials, how much chance do they have of having a sustainable downtrend? i don't see it...they led the strong last minute rally today to end positive on the day...more than likely that SPX will follow this tomorrow and post a gain...depending on the strength of the move up, we might be heading for further bearishness or just sidetrend...very unlikely to resume the uptrend...

5/20 - Market Analysis (stage 4a)

SPX - start of the fall?


SPY - short term head and shoulders


SPY - possible support


RKH - lower high possible here


VIX - held off support on a closing basis


ETFs - financials worst


HEAT


Analysis: overall, the intraday move and the possible lower high looks very bearish...but for some reason, i feel like i am too bearish...RKH fell under its 30min EMAs which is bearish but SPY and QQQQ are holding up strong...still keeping its uptrend line actually...so i wonder what will happen tomorrow...i definitely have many more short setups in my watchlist than long setups....usually its a good indicator of whats to come...but i definitely should resist from getting too bearish until we get a confirmation that we have a lower high...and for that, we need support to breakdown on big volume...if that happens tomorrow, i won't hold back any bearishness...but for now, i am scared to committ my stance to 100% bear...in actuality, we might still go back up tomorrow to shake out some people and retest the highs before even falling down again...

5/19 - Market Analysis

SPX - getting closer to a 2x top


SPY - late day selloff means little


RKH - 2x top looking good here too


VIX - new lows..but now on support


ETFs - financials lag...tech and materials strong


HEAT - overall its random except the down in financials


Analysis: ok..light volume as we continue to try to reach the old high...makes sense with my guess that we can get a 2x top.....but when looking at VIX, i think its possible that we just start and making a lower high as soon as tomorrow...definitely feels like nobody but suckers are chasing this rally...BUT of course, there are no certainties and definitely no confirmed technical signals that we will head lower before heading higher again...definitely watch RKH and QQQQ to get an idea of where we might go next...

5/18 - Market Analysis

SPX - weak volume rally


SPY - 2x bottom confirmed


RKH - possible 2x top later


VIX - bulls in control


ETFs - financial leads


HEAT - everything did well except safety stocks


Analysis: looking at sectors, intraday action, and the size of today's move, we have no reason not to be super bullish...the charts even confirm the bullishness when looking strictly at the price pattern...only problem is the lack of volume...and it wasn't just light volume...it was superlight volume...so light actually that i am really thinking we are gonna have one last push to the prior high on light volume (because institutions are on the sidelines and only suckers are supplying the bullish action) and then fail once bears rush back in....but for now, its bad to hold shorts...better to go long and just keep stops tight as the bulls might surprise us all and make new highs...

5/15 - Market Analysis

SPX week - resistance


SPX - support


SPY - possible 2x bottom


QQQQ - downtrend losing steam


RKH - neutral


VIX - support?


ETFs - weird to see materials lead and energy lag


HEAT - tech becoming a leader once again


Analysis: more signs are pointing to that we are near the end of the pullback to support...we can still fall more, but right now, the strength of the bears seem to be near done...if things keep going in this fashion, we might get back on track to retesting the highs of last week this week...but for now, its best to stay bearish until we have confirmation in the charts...if new or some other announcement comes out to scare off the buyers at this support level, we can still have a much bigger decline on our hands...definitely best just to trade small positions in the bearish side...