11/28 - Market Analysis

SPX
- somewhat a breakout of the trendline
- i say volume will be key..light volume and the rally continues


SPY 30"
- slight resistance above...
- tough to call a breakdown without atleast 2 straight days of declines


COMPQ
- same pattern as SPX


DJIA
- same as SPX as well...but slightly worse


XLF
- in a good area of resistance...
- very near my target of 13


USO
- bottom still in play...


DBA
- agricultural commodities seem to have a very nice bottom forming


VIX
- support turned out to be strong
- bearish divergence for the markets with a candle that closed way stronger than the index's reflect


A/D
- nothing divergent here...



Analysis: got to just hold any longs that are in the portfolio and be aware that monday, when volume will most likely come back into the markets, we should get a reversal of the current uptrend...not guaranteed to any degree at all though so its still to early to short the market. with 1 strong down day or 2 down days in a row, we will know for sure if this short term low volume rally is topping. for now, any pullback can be bought with a tight stop...and shorts should be avoided in the meantime as this rally can continue on light volume all the way up to 1000 on spx

ETF:
best - xlf, gdx, xli, pph, iyk
worst - ung, uso, uga, xle, xme, fxi

- financiials leading is a good sign...energy struggled badly today...might be a bearish divergence in that. overall though, today was pretty unimportant as it was a very light shortened trading day...monday will help...