12/1 - Market Analysis

SPX
- headfake it was...
- 1st target is set..
- the resistance line that was evident in many important charts turned out to be a very good indicator
- volume looks unbiased


SPY 30"
- got to be somewhat discouraged for bears as we had superbly light volume
- 81 is great support, but after that, there's nothing but the bottom


DJIA
- at a level of support...might it lead the indexes higher?



XLF
- the weakest of the bunch...
- very aggressive but also very possible target below


USO
- the bottom i called for is being tested
- break below and indexes should continue to fall...
- a strong bounce and maybe today's freefall was a headfake


VIX
- might 70 be resistance? possible
- seems more likely to get close to a 3x top before vix completely falls down


A/D
- very bearish looking...totally one sided
- heard that all 100 of the NDAQ 100 was down today..thats amazing!


Analysis: The hardest thing about trading is to control your natural tendencies of hope and fear. Most people misunderstand hope and fear, they think that hope is greed and fear is what is in their way of pulling the trigger. In fact it is quite the opposite. Hope is that feeling you get when you have a losing position that has either broken a stop or was never given a exit to start with with and you still keep holding on, HOPING for the position to turn around and get you back in the black. FEAR is what we feel when we start racking up paper profits. Stops get overtightened and early exits to lock in profits is the result of this. Tomorrow is sure to cause some fear in many shorts, including me, but the wisest thing to do is to just HOPE that the position will keep running and maintain stops....thats how you use hope and fear to maximize profits and minimize losses...with that said, my charts suggest that we will most likely continue to fall. as today was a huge drop, a likely pauseday or slightly up day might occur tomorrow, but most likely will not be enough to break above the 5day MA. a strong downtrend is to see bigger volume tomorrow and a very weak downtrend would be to have continued weakness on even lighter volume...

ETFs:
best - uup, ung, (dba, uga, gld, iyk)
worst - rkh, tan, oih, xhb, xme, xlf
total = -8.9%

-regional banks weakest with xlf not far behind...iwm and mdy down there as well...doesn't look good for the bulls...