AfterHour.19

• Mar.31
• Although the final ticker looks like a regular pause day on the daily chart, market was rather strong throughout the day. 50dma held as support today and although I still believe that we'll break it, I don't project it to go lower than 20dma. If bullishness resurfaces again tomorrow, I'm going to ride it to the 100dma.

Portfolio

• New Transactions: None
• Holdings: Short WFC; Long V
• Past Transactions: Short V -3.4%; Long AAPL +7.4%

3/30 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance


SPY - downtrend


RKH - pullback


VIX - resistance?

VIX 2 - bigger triangle?


A/D


ETFs - don't short health and go long energy...learn from my mistakes....haha


HEAT


ISEE - holding up...bullish divergence


Analysis: things still going as planned...very technically sound...problem is the volume and the lack of panic and selling intraday...definitely feeling more like profit taking than bears taking back control of the market...i was hoping we would make new lows and get slaughtered...but after looking at the charts, i have a feeling we will just quietly pullback to an amount less than 50% of the move...nevertheless, a pause day or pullback tomorrow will leave a great risk / reward play for a short...

AfterHour.18

• Mar.30
• The retracement of the rally has begun. We now have two down days, and I think it's possible that we reach the 750 level as early as tomorrow. We can have a pause day before falling but I am giving a slight edge to the fast falling scenario. With the moving averages (100, 50 & 20) converging, 750 to 840 seems to be the range for the next few days.

Portfolio

• New Transactions: Sell Short V, Buy Short WFC
• Holdings: Short WFC; Long V
• Past Transactions: Short V -3.4%; Long AAPL +7.4%

Ron Paul on FOX Business (2 parts)

AfterHour.17

• Mar.27
• Today was an unproductive day as, aside from gap down at open, market traded in a tight range. I'd like to think that the retracement of the recent multiweek rally started today and will continue next week. But it'll likely be just a partial retracement with the momentum on larger timeframe remaining to the upside. Therefore, I'd like to be in a position for fast short trades early next week.

Portfolio

• New Transaction: None
• Holdings: Long V; Short V
• Past Transactions: Long AAPL +7.4%

3/27 - Market Analysis (stage 3)

SPX - bullish

SPY - trendline holding

DJIA - bearish


NDX - bearish


RKH - bearish


OIH - bearish


GLD - bullish


VIX - side


A/D


ETFs - energy great to short


HEAT - bearish (widespread profit taking?)


ISEE - holding steady



Analysis: things went as i thought with energy, financials, and every other chart at resistance...things are going as planned and yet i am long energy in my portfolio...haha...anyway...things are lining up and with one more day down, it will be a juicy time to start shorting...but for now, i still think its early...its a slight gamble and i prefer to just stay with the uptrend with SPX...but if we fall more, energy and financials gonna be best to short...most likely we will rally monday after a gap down or whatnot to make ppl stop worrying about the possibility of selloffs when the quarter starts again in april...but then by mid-week we should start falling big...

AfterHour.16

• Mar.26
• Today was a messy day. Bulls came out ahead but didn't look too healthy. My skeptism grows but the uptrend still marchs on. Yet, I wouldn't hestitate to short tomorrow if opportunity arises.

Portfolio

• New Transaction: Sell Long AAPL
• Holdings: Long V; Short V
• Past Transactions: Long AAPL +7.4%

3/26 - Market Analysis

SPX - bullish


SPY - bullish


DJIA - resistance


COMPQ - resistance


QQQQ - strong resistance


RKH - strong resistance


OIH - very strong resistance


USO - slight resistance


VIX - strong support


A/D


ETFs - financials not participating


HEAT - financials weak


ISEE - bearish divergence


Analysis: based only on SPX and SPY, we will rally more...based on everything though, the rally has fizzled...major indexes and sectors are at strong resistance and even the VIX is on strong support...everything is almost on the dot too...seems to perfect...and of course we got weakening volume too...since the rally is so strong and so many ppl want it to last, i think that the sectors that hit resistance today will just drift sideways tomorrow...such as tech and energy...then we fall hard next week...BUT as the trend is still up, its not the best time to short just yet...think the best play is just to hold positions and not initiate any new long positions as i really think this might be the end of it...

AfterHour.15

• Mar.25
• Today was a real battle from start to finish. Bears took over midday but the Bulls fought back right near the end. It's hard to tell who'll come out a winner, but whoever takes it, I presume, will have control for the next day or two.
  

Portfolio

• New Transaction: Short V
• Holdings: Long AAPL; Long V; Short V

3/25 - Market Analysis (stage 3)

SPX - in a tight range


SPY - trendline intact


RKH - resistance still key


OIH - sideways like oil


VIX - side


A/D


ETFs - profit taking at XLF and XLE, financials brought market up, and healthcare + utilities not participating in the march rally


HEAT - neutral


ISEE - not much selling or buying...


Analysis: bulls and bears have things to be happy bout and things to be worried bout today...most important key things to me is that RKH (the leader) is still below very strong resistance and that SPY is holding its streak of higher highs and lows (with also a very sustainable 45 degree uptrend line). i would say that its too early to short the market and too late to get very bullish on the market...best to just have a small long position as trading with the trend at the moment is the smartest play....just watch out for super whipsaw days like today...

3/24 - Market Analysis (stage 2)

SPX - bullish (healthy pullback today)


SPY - bullish


RKH - kinda bearish


DBC - bullish


GLD - very bullish


VIX - SPX bullish


A/D - healthy but the AMEX volume


ETFs - material and financials still leaders of the week


Heat - very widespread selloff


ISEE - bullish as there wasn't a huge move to put buying as we did yesterday


Analysis: we got a pretty textbook pullback to make resistance support today...we can't be 100% cocky confident that we will keep moving up here but odds are favoring the bulls...the big thing that can fuck this all up is a huge drop in oil and RKH...if that falls, we will most likely break through atleast 1 or 2 of the support levels of SPY...so gotta be cautious of that...nevertheless, materials and gold remain the best buys out there...today and tomorrow are days where u just let stops do their job and have a handy buy list nearby in case we get a surprise reversal