Saturday, March 14, 2009

3/13 - Market Analysis

SPX - above MA and price resistance on good volume


SPY - resistance on 2 levels


SPY - important support levels



DJIA - above resistance


RKH - strong resistance


USO - holding in range


GLD - bubble?


VIX - confirmed breakdown


A/D - semi bullish


A/D - health remaining strong


Heat - many a sea of pausedays and bulls


ISEE - open and close at 164...side


Analysis: overall it was just a somewhat bullish pauseday. most stocks held steady and was able to resist seller's strength midday. i noticed this midday and therefore decided to get long at 11am PST than go short for the rest of the day. surprised me but as a risk /reward standpoint, it was still a good trade...in fact, my stop is still alive at the day's 2x resistance...looking forward, i think that we might get a pretty strong pullback next week which might scare many longs...its just too tough and impossible sounding to think we will continue this ascent without a strong pullback to the target...so far its doing it but how long can it last? i really dislike countertrend rallies as everyday brings on more resistance to worry about...thats why i think its best just to hold all longs until a real stop is broken..that way u won't keep getting whipsawed out based on predictions brought on by possible resistance points...if SPY breaks below 74.7 level, i will get kind of scared of a huge fall..but if it confirmed a break of 73.5, then i will be sure to just give up on my longs and take profit...but don't get me wrong, i think this rally will continue as many of my indicators tell me that a pullback will not kill the bullishness

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