Monday, March 16, 2009

3/16 - Market Analysis (stage 3)

SPX - big reversal, big vol


SPY - broke support from high


DJIA - intraday resistance caused reversal on huge vol


DJIA - holds support


RKH - huge resistance today, bearish candle


RKH - resistance on the dot...short this if we confirm reversal tomorrow


USO - 50ma resistance holds


VIX - retest of breakdown?


A/D - not too bearish


ETFs - of course financials weak...but not worst? weird


Heat - not all bearish...just tech and financials


ISEE - leading indicator midday that we would rally then fall


Analysis: healthy pullback or reversal into the start of the downtrend? i was pondering this all day today...my conclusion midday and even EOD is that we are just having a healthy pullback...thats why i didn't take any profits and held all my longs...but now, looking at the charts and the volume behind the selloff, i am feeling more bearish than before. definitely financials moved us up, so if it has another bearish day, it is bound to move us back down. RKH is very important and at this point, its the most bearish chart i have. its a great short as long as resistance remains strong...as for the other charts, we mainly are having stocks hitting strong intraday resistance which caused a selloff which made the daily charts look very bad. but in the 30min charts, it honestly looks very healthy. as we were oversold, this kind of pullback is normal. as with everything else, we need confirmation and continuation. if we get that tomorrow in the form of a 2x top or lower low on the 30min charts tomorrow, i will be convinced that its time to go short...we all knew the deadcat bounce was gonna end someday, i just thought it would move slightly higher to fake ppl out. BUT i do have to mention that u have to watch USO and VIX as they are giving us quite strong bullish signals...

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