Wednesday, March 4, 2009

3/4 - Market Analysis (stage 2a)

SPX - oversold rally


SPY - resistance or not?


COMPQ - holds support, but still downtrend


RKH - laggard sitting on support


RKH - downtrend stayed very much intact


USO - still just up to resistance only


WTIC - why no rally in WTIC?


VIX - still in triangle


A/D - advance / decline issues not as bullish as i thought


ETFs - definitely a commodities minus financials rally


Analysis: We can call today an oversold rally or a commodities rally or even a china stimulus rally, but we definitely cannot yet call this a bottom rally or use bottom in any way to describe today's move. the media coverage on today's move just made me laugh...all these guys should learn to read a chart...we fall almost everyday for 2 weeks for huge moves down, and we get one strong move that didn't even close on its highs or have capitulation volume, and ppl start to get bullish? crazy stupid...i got stopped out of one position at the last hour only to see the market fall like a rock down in the last 1/2 hour...pissed me off but seeing how much we've fallen so far, we can very likely just have another deadcat dumb bull bounce tomorrow which would make today's stop out a blessing...either way, its wise jus to hold whatever shorts didn't get stopped out and make a nice bullish watchlist if somehow we are able to add to this one day rally and move above the downtrend channel...oh yah..and don't forget that financials lagged badly today and only got a bid when mark to market was talked about in the last hour...ok to try to take a small risk going long commodities now, but not worth touching financials just yet

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