7/30 - Stage 2a

SPX - bullish


SPY - broke out from the consolidation


COMPQ - slightly bad candle...


VIX - back to stage 3


ETFs - materials back in the lead


HEAT - bullish


Analysis: wow...things sure changed in a hurry...finally out of consolidation...but went higher instead of lower...i was thinking it would go lower instead but that shows u how unwise it is to trade from predictions...ok...so the way its going we should go higher...BUT as i looked through the charts, i don't see many good setups,...very very few...mainly because of the EOD decline into the close...it seems insignificant but it might turn out to be a big thing...these selloffs often mark buying climax as volume goes up from many shares changing hands...not only from bulls but also big guys taking profit...but still more likely that it was just a pullback before going higher tomorrow...

7/29 - Stage 3

Stage 3 Struggle


SPX - i think ready to topple slightly


SPY - still stage 3


RKH - back to consolidation range


OIH - pullback complete?


USO - stage 4


UNG - stage 4 and can fall way more


UUP - finding a base


VIX - SPX bearish


ETFs - materials and energy getting hit


HEAT - bearish


Analysis: Ok...i think we are really close to going lower to make a good sized pullback...BUT for now, its still in stage 3 and all i am doing is guessing..was very close to buying a short position today but decided not to as i wanted to wait for the confirmation of stage 4....by now, most longs should be close to getting stopped out and short setups are starting to shape up...still early...so just be patient...as we've had consolidation stages before that turn out to be another stage 2 continuation instead of a stage 4 decline. Materials and energy are key right now...if the dollar contunues to strengthen, energy will fall and so will the indexes...if it recovers, financials will be one of the leaders...

Weinstein's Stage Analysis Definitions

Stage 1a - Start of a base. Needs much more time. Shorts get placed with tighter stops.
Stage 1 - Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1b - Late in base-building phase.Watch for breakout.

Stage 2a - Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 - Advancing Stage.
Stage 2b - Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully. But still a hold.

Stage 3a - Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 - The Top Area. Start to reduce positions. Short setups beginning to look good.
Stage 3b - Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling. Can also start getting into anticipatory short positions

Stage 4a - Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining long positions and accumulate short positions aggressively.
Stage 4 - The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side but keep buying shorts.
Stage 4b - Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying. And time to hold shorts.

7/28 - stage 3a

consolidation mode


SPX - bullish but very slow


SPY - fell below 30ema...stage 3


RKH - still bullish


UNG - bearish


VIX - bearish SPX


ETFs


HEAT - bear mix


Analysis: first signs of SPY cracking happened today...its in stage 3 now...can still go higher but more than likely, stage 3 ends with a stage 4 fall instead...so watchout for that...no great setups out there at all right now as bullish charts are way too extended and bearish stocks just haven't been confirmed...hate to say it but its best not to buy anything unless we get some huge moves which might make for a great EOD buy tomorrow...doubt i though...

7/27 - stage 2b

slow moving...but still up


SPX - overbought bullish


SPY - doesn't want to fall, but rally slowing


RKH - bullish


VIX - bearish


ETFs - financials led


HEAT - mix


Analysis: VIX is the reason that i feel that this rally might be very close to being over...but there are still many signs that say that everything still is fine...its definitely bullish for the bears not even to get 5 or 10 points off of the DJIA...pretty pathetic showing..but i would also like to mention how the housing news was fantastic yet the markets didn't really react too bullishly. so maybe the bulls really are getting tired...

7/24 - stage 2b

no doubt about it...its a bull...no need to make it out to be anymore than it is...


SPX - bullish


SPY - bullish


COMPQ - way overbought but still bullish


RKH - consolidating


UNG - bear flag?


VIX - SPX bull


ETFs - important sectors lagged


HEAT - mix...


ISEE - bearish divergence


Analysis: still bullish, so most of the portfolio should still be bullish..but more holding than buying as the overbought level is pretty crazy right now...as nothing much changed but another show of how the indexes aren't ready to take a big pullback yet, nor even a small one, i would have to say that all we can do is not predicting tops and just hold longs and keep raking in the cash...but as always...be prepared for a strong pullback signal...none yet...just small indicators...

7/23 - Market Says

Listen to the Bicep


SPX - bullish


SPY - bullish


COMPQ - bullish but volume worries me


RKH - resistance but bullish til proven otherwise


USO - how much higher will it go?


UNG - got stopped on big volume today


DBC - higher than 30ema here too


UUP - support holds


VIX - resistance at the breakdown level...


ETFs - materials and financials lead...bullish


HEAT - bullish


ISEE - no divegence...bullish


Analysis: everything stays bullish...got the first sign of a possible top from UNG but definitely not enough to start shorting or getting out of longs...definitely possible to go higher...if RKH is unable to break above resistance soon though, maybe that will mark the end of the rally...today's move was good but as we are quite a ways from EMA, a pullback tomorrow looks very likely...after hours we had some bad earnings from AMZN...so the pullback will most likely start right at the open...as long as EMAs hold, just stay long...