Wednesday, July 29, 2009

7/29 - Stage 3

Stage 3 Struggle


SPX - i think ready to topple slightly


SPY - still stage 3


RKH - back to consolidation range


OIH - pullback complete?


USO - stage 4


UNG - stage 4 and can fall way more


UUP - finding a base


VIX - SPX bearish


ETFs - materials and energy getting hit


HEAT - bearish


Analysis: Ok...i think we are really close to going lower to make a good sized pullback...BUT for now, its still in stage 3 and all i am doing is guessing..was very close to buying a short position today but decided not to as i wanted to wait for the confirmation of stage 4....by now, most longs should be close to getting stopped out and short setups are starting to shape up...still early...so just be patient...as we've had consolidation stages before that turn out to be another stage 2 continuation instead of a stage 4 decline. Materials and energy are key right now...if the dollar contunues to strengthen, energy will fall and so will the indexes...if it recovers, financials will be one of the leaders...

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