2/27 - Market Analysis (stage 4)

SPX - bearish

SPY - bearish


DJIA - capitulation volume?


COMPQ - going to lows


RKH - resistance holding

USO - resistance holding

UUP - @ resistance


VIX - bearish SPX


A/D


ETFs - healthcare falling off a cliff this week...



Analysis: No reason for us to be bullish here...supports broke today and i think we will continue to fall...mondays are always scary but it should open favorably for the bears...i sold off all my put positions on friday but after looking at the close and the charts, i wish i had did a double down instead of selling off to take profit. It can be said that we are way oversold and people just overreacted this week, but charts don't lie, and they say that we will head lower, possibly much lower.

Intraday.1

• Feb 27. 12:01pm
• Dow -2.00
• We've managed to rally all the way back from gapping down at open thanks to citibank. But I see this rally running into some pressure within the next couple of hours. And under pressure, I believe we'll settle moderately lower than current level, but not lower than the morning low. Buying interest seems to be mostly technical while the reason to sell, citibank, has already been announced.

2/26 - Market Analysis

SPX - downtrend


SPY - brokedown, void H+S


RKH - resistance


SMH - resistance


WTIC - bottom in but at resistance


USO - strong resistance


VIX - strong support


GLD - very strong support


FXY - going down...bullish spx?


A/D - slight bearish


ETFs - important sectors strong...unimportant ones weak...total sector rotation going on...


Analysis: First i have to mention sector analysis...what everyone is looking to fall hard is commercial real estate...and i beleived that..but i think that ain't the next sector rotation...the next and maybe the last will be money out of education and health care and money into financials and energy...basically we are very near the end...once financials and energy start to rally, we can call this a bottom...actually...more specifically is that once we have the last safety sectors fall, and ppl have nowhere to hide...then we bottom...and ppl start to see that its best jus to put money on great value stocks being financials and energy which have been raped 10 times over during this economic crisis...ANYWAY...back to the analysis...the overall feeling i get from the charts is that we will fall...we got the run up needed to push us lower and that lower move will come very likely tomorrow and into monday...we will get the retest of the lows from IWM, MDY, and COMPQ finally and that is when we can finally rally...there is a likelihood that we get a huge fall tomorrow morning then a super huge news related bounce to close hella up as in a hammer but i kind of doubt it...just watch for it and call me a genius if it happens...but for now, just stay bearish...

R.C. Market Report 2.26

• Starting tomorrow, "Intraday" will bring you updates on the market intraday and R.C.'s predictions for the rest of the day. Intraday will be posted during power lunch. Thank you for reading R.C. Market Report for the past five months.

R.C. Market Report 2.25

• Today: Market was very choppy today. I thought there would be a big official announcement about the bank plan and the stress test, but apparently I was wrong.

• Tomorrow: Market sold off twice on government action, but rallied for reasons I don't quite know during the rest of the time. I am not sure what to expect and when to expect when it comes to news out of Washington. And that's why it's hard to be aggressively bullish or bearish. It'd be nice to have it one way or another.

2/25 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance


SPY - inv. head and shoulders in play


COMPQ - resistance


RKH - resistance (the leader)


XLF - resistance


USO - kinda broke resistance...got some hope now


UUP - strong dollar moving up conflicts with USO


VIX - support strong


A/D - pretty bearish


ETFs - RKH is strongest...tech and financials did well


Analysis: sector causing the rally is RKH...which means that if it bottomed, SPX will too...so far we just see resistance and strong volume...but no confirmation that NOW is the time to call a bottom...need more info...and intraday the move was definitely caused by the head and shoulders formation in SPY...watch that to help guide your intraday trades tomorrow...breakout and every technician will be bullish...so don't step in front of that train...but as head and shoulders formations breakdown all the time in the 30min chart, i think we have a good chance to null the formation tomorrow...definitely whipsaw today...and won't be surprised to have that kind of action tomorrow as well...

2/24 - Market Analysis (stage 1)

SPX - still bearish


SPY day - still downtrend


SPY30 - lower highs still


COMPQ - still down+ just back to breakdown price


DJIA - still well below breakdown


XLF - right back to resistance


RKH - gap window resistance


USO - bearish on weak volume


UUP - on support


VIX - big support


A/D


ETFs - definitely looks like a short squeeze of financials


Analysis: basically we got a huge rally...but nobody really knows why...i have a couple of reasons...technically we should not have risen except in a very short 10min timeframe....the rally felt very much like "buy the rumor and sell the news"....basically selling tomorrow after obama's speech...we were deeply oversold...so its also an oversold bounce...profit taking from bears...also possible is just a very strong short squeeze of financials with the bullish news from bernanke...whatever it is, technicals show that the downtrend is still intact...near close to breaking today but wasn't able to. with confirmation tomorrow, i will get bullish...but for now, i think today was more a 1 day thing than a reversal...too many signs showing we aren't ready and today was bullshit...but i will respect the rally and look to exit shorts if it shows i need to tomorrow...

R.C. Market Report 2.24

• Today: We nearly engulfed yesterday's candle, which would have been very positive. Volume was also bigger than yesterday. I have to agree that Bernanke did look more comfortable answering questions in today's session than in any others.

• Tomorrow: We got half of the work done today as we rallied nicely into the close. Gold dropped and Vix got crushed. We did quite well to set the table up for tomorrow. Tonight we have obama's state of union address but I don't think he'll mess that one up. So the overnight futures market should hold up fine. But I think traders will get cautious before geithner starts talking about the bank plan. We've been burned once before, so if there's a rally in store, it'll happen after geithner finishes successfully. Let's hope today's rally doesn't go to waste.

2/24 - Inverse H+S

Check out the chart...fucking beautiful! got so excited that i couldn't wait to post it...everything is so clear in hindsight...textbook textbook textbook! what a great argument to any technical non-believers...

R.C. Market Report 2.23

• Today: S&P closed below the important 750 level. Market sold off as AIG added to the current financial mess and government's help won't come until Wednesday.

• Tomorrow: It feels like there's no reason to rally but I got long the market near the end of day on updown.com. The volume was less on today's decline than last friday's. Gold didn't move higher in response to a fall in the market. And technically, it's oversold. We closed below 750 today but I don't think this level will go away without a fight. If we are to hold the sideway trend range, dating back to last october, we are going to have a rally. Last time we were at this level, market responded with a 5 day rally. We can have a stronger rally this time if couple of things happen. One, market rallies tomorrow in anticipation of gov action on wed and/or on leaked information. Then on wed, Geithner has to deliver this time. If he succeeds in providing any form of clarity, this market will scream higher. If he fails, I expect to see 6's on Dow and S&P in matter of days. So the possibility of a giant move lies for both directions. But since I believe that this monthly support of 750 is of significance, I'm simply betting on the upside, no less with fake money.

2/23 - Market Analysis

SPX - breakdown


SPY - no support


COMPQ - broke support


NDX - barely under support


RKH - failure at resistance


USO - bearish


VIX - bearish SPX


A/D


ETFs - financials not the culprit today



Analysis: Weird to see the cause and effect of today's action...a rally from supposed financial good news which gaps us higher...then a strong selloff in every sector led by tech and materials...and finally after a silent midday, we drift strongly lower to end right at the lows of the day...had moments for bulls to try to gain support from definitely didn't see much buying...a whole lot of selling from any profit holders it seemed was the theme of the day...support broken on all indexes now...biggest surprise was just how strong NASDAQ sold off today as other indexes were holding on ok...must have scared all those hiding in the "stronger sectors"...just as surprising was the strength in some financial names as the market sold off. i remain bearish as the only thing that can turn stuff around in the following few days is surprise announcements from the gov't...