Thursday, February 12, 2009

2/12 - Market Analysis

SPX - held support miraculously with news


SPY - closing gap but not above resistance


QQQQ - pullback of an eventual huge rally?


QQQQ 30 - above resistance, making megaphone


RKH - ascending triangle still in play...but downtrend still


RKH 30 - didn't even close gap...stopped at first resistance


USO - bearish


VIX - held at support


A/D - even advance vs decline...


ETFs - despite a huge reversal, XLF still on the bottom. commodities strong


Analysis: I hate news...and today it made all the difference in the world. a downtrend would have been confirmed if we closed near the lows...with the huge volume reversal at the last hour of trading, i feel less bearish and just neutral right now. its tough to call which way it will go but if just thinking about news, i'm pretty sure the gov't will do all it can tomorrow to keep this rally going meaning more leaked out details of the bailout, etc...so thats not good for the bears...But as most resistance is still in place, it would be premature to go long now...have to just see what tomorrow brings ahead of the shortened week next week. If we rally, i like tech and commodities, if we fall, i like oil and financials...if we go sideways, tomorrow and maybe even into next week will be a total bore as traders will be sidelined waiting on news...survivor on tonight!

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