Wednesday, February 25, 2009

2/24 - Market Analysis (stage 1)

SPX - still bearish


SPY day - still downtrend


SPY30 - lower highs still


COMPQ - still down+ just back to breakdown price


DJIA - still well below breakdown


XLF - right back to resistance


RKH - gap window resistance


USO - bearish on weak volume


UUP - on support


VIX - big support


A/D


ETFs - definitely looks like a short squeeze of financials


Analysis: basically we got a huge rally...but nobody really knows why...i have a couple of reasons...technically we should not have risen except in a very short 10min timeframe....the rally felt very much like "buy the rumor and sell the news"....basically selling tomorrow after obama's speech...we were deeply oversold...so its also an oversold bounce...profit taking from bears...also possible is just a very strong short squeeze of financials with the bullish news from bernanke...whatever it is, technicals show that the downtrend is still intact...near close to breaking today but wasn't able to. with confirmation tomorrow, i will get bullish...but for now, i think today was more a 1 day thing than a reversal...too many signs showing we aren't ready and today was bullshit...but i will respect the rally and look to exit shorts if it shows i need to tomorrow...

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