Monday, February 9, 2009

2/6 - Market Analysis

SPX - resistance from prior high


SPY - resistance is clear here...


COMPQ - higher high


NDX - rectangle resistance


RKH - gap resistance


USO - spike on huge volume breaking downtrend briefly


VIX - bearish divergence for SPX


A/D - very bullish volume


ETFs - bullish to see the best performing are the most important sectors


Analysis: amazing move today and yesterday for the bulls...without any pullback at all today, it seems that its overextended to the longside...as a bull heading into the day, i was happy but also scared by the action...it really did seem too much like "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of setup day. buyers seemed euphoric as the bulls were able to push the indexes to close right at the highs. from my experience, any big move up always leads to a big pullback down...doesn't mean the uptrend is over...just that the pullback might be big enough to knock off most of your hardearned profits...the reason is simple...at this point, nobody smart (institutions, big players) is willing to buy as they only buy on pullbacks and so far we haven't had one intraday...so the only people buying are the small timers..the emotional traders scared to miss the bottom rally they have been waiting for all year...this means that if there are any signs of fear in the market, like a bad open on monday or dissapointments due to geitner, we can see the indexes crumble hard. this is evidenced on the charts as every chart shows strength but every one of them also show the close right on resistance...emotions are running high...but to be clear, i am still bullish of the market and looking forward to a nice pullback so that i can get long once again...i'm just feeling bearish about the size of the next pullback

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