USO weak again! what the hell is wrong? Market down, i thought USO would rally. Damn dollar is messing up the USO trade...
XLF very strong relative strength vs the market. makes me wonder who are the true laggards today. Was away from the desk and too tired to research it now...but maybe XLF's chart is no longer very important...we'll see...
UUP...dollar continues to not want to fall. but was also unable to make new highs...somehow this was very bearish for oil....i dunno what happened today but still see a drop in the dollar...resistance is very strong, unless we get some news in from the FED, i don't see dollar breaking resistance...
Analysis: Loved how it pulled back today. Great to be right. And great to know that i've done well to not add any long positions yesterday. But today's pullback makes the charts once again neutral. the down day did nothing for the markets nor the 30 other charts i took a look at today. on the 30 minute chart, the bullish scenario in SPX is near being broken but not quite yet. Tomorrow is needed for confirmation. Financials and Exchanges were faily strong today. I don't understand it. As i briefly looked at charts, i really did not understand where the weakest sector was. Days like this is when i should not have been away from the office. Atleast i prepared my portfolio for the vacation day as most of it is in cash. Overall though, i am very neutral, at best i am 55% bear, 45% bull....oil is not making this decision easier either...So many factors with economic reports and earnings makes for a very whipsaw market. With so many distracting factors, i might need to be in all cash going into the weekend (as i need to sell off my only position tomorrow in preparation for its earnings next week)
Game Plan: cash is good. better to wait for market to make its move. Needs a break of resistance of for Oil to show strength for me to feel confident enough to want to risk hard earned money in this environment. Tomorrow i will spend most of my time researching what caused the huge drop today and whether i should replace the XLF chart with a more relevant ETF chart. 70% chance i will stay 100% cash after liquidating my position tomorrow. I expect tomorrow to be relatively quiet as window dressing is over and this week overall just yielded a fairly neutral week....should end that way in anticipation of more direction based moves next week. The catalyst? I'll be on the lookout for that...
I will not be having a conviction buy or sell list today as i feel that nothing is strong or weak enough to put money into as of this point.
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