QQQQ...bounce up slightly and is now right between resistance and support...
XLF...the leader today as it ended right on nearterm resistance...possibility to break out of pivot to rectangle resistance
USO...huge fall today from resistance and wound up losing all of its gains from past 2 days of rallying...definitely was affected by the resistance the commodities charts were showing on thursday's close
UUP...rose big and again holds the trendline...but now between support and resistance
SPX weekly...shows that the longer timeframe is very bearish and shows that this point is not just resistance in the daily but also the weekly
QQQQ weekly...huge triangle with great risk/reward on either a breakdown or breakout. declining volume points to a failure to breakout
IWM weekly...strongest index with a good probability of breaking out soon, but not this week...volume has been very bullish
XLF weekly...most likely down weeks in the future but i suspect that the worst we can fall from here is just the july lows...
Euro weekly...decent bounce but overall weak...i suspect more weakness here til it hits better support
Analysis: Still we have many mixed signals. The low volume is throwing off my analysis and causing me to be more cautious in the market than i would like to be. Some charts show resistance, some support, but many also show a grey area in between both support and resistance. this makes for a very complicated trading environment. I am all cashed out awaiting better signals. As a swing trader, i am hoping for a huge volume breakout or breakdown, as it will give me a good entry point for a possible weeklong position play. with such low volume moves in the market, i cannot feel confident holding any position for longer than 1 or 2 days. I don't see much risk/reward for the bulls or bears in the upcoming week as we are heading into a 3 day weekend and the start of school. I expect similar low volume gyrational moves as i doubt there will be any big news to come this week. If i had to choose, i would like to see a breakdown more than a breakout as the targets are more defined to the downside for the markets than the upside. Overall, the best trades i see are the short commodities and energy as they have already started to show weakness at resistance.
Game Plan: maybe get in on a small position on a short of commodities or energy tomorrow...not much planned for tomorrow except to hopefully get a good read of the market from intraday moves...
Weekly Outlook: market will trade fairly sideways with low volume...Dow should end within 100pts of friday's close....Oil should continue to fall and the dollar should rise...
Sector of the Week: XME down
Long Sectors:
PPH (pharmaceuticals are in a nice upward channel)
Tech (remarkable strength in some tech such as RIMM)
Short Sectors:
Casino / Gaming (intraday very weak)
XME (downtrend resistance)
Agriculture (downtrend resistance)
Coal Stocks ((downtrend resistance)
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