Saturday, August 30, 2008

8/29 - Market Analysis

SPX...fell back to the resistance it broke out from yesterday. i feel this is most likely a retest...but i'm overall neutral here


SPX weekly..this shows that we still have room to rally....


QQQQ...the laggard and reason for the weakness in the stock market....will it continue to take down the market? Is its weakness more important than XLF's strength?


QQQQ weekly...in a huge triangle...how will it break?


XLF...the leader yet again (with good volume too)...i see it going to rectangle resistance....


XLF weekly...can it go up to resistance? possible...


UUP...all the dollar does is move oil now...not even the market...its strength intraday to make up early morning losses was incredible...still no opinion here as its right at resistance...breakout?


USO...big rise caused by the dollar weakness that later fell and eventually closed at its lows at about even for the day....the dollar, not the hurricane is the reason...cnbc, please get the story right! and..yes its fucking weak....watch the symmetrical triangle (a continuation pattern, fyi)


Analysis: This week was sure boring....as my fellow titan, i too wish that i took a week off this week...at hindsight, i can say that this week's charts were rather unimportant. sure we did get some slight breakouts from channels and saw strength in financials and weakness in tech, but overall, with unexceptional volume, not much has changed in the bigger scheme of things...the weekly charts are basically the same as last week and with low volume all around, its hard to tell where the real strength and weakness is....that is why i am very neutral right now...i slightly favor the bullish side but i would not put money into it....atleast not yet.

Mindset: my overall mindset is confusion...i definitely got more confused than otherwise from staying at the desk this week. i really think a week off would have done better for my analysis than sitting here watching the tape...i know for sure that it would have been better for my portfolio. definitely was a week pull of daytraders whipsawing all the weak hands out there...as a victim, i know....hopefully next week's shortened trading week won't be as boring...but no promises as usually shortened weeks have low volume as well...a 2 week trip starting last friday night sounds great next year...

Bias: 55/45 bullish

Strong: Financials, Retailers, Casinos, Refiners
Weak: Tech

No comments: