Thursday, August 28, 2008

8/28 - Market Analysis

SPX...broke out of major resistance today on decent volume. Its enough to knock the bear out of me...I am neutral and near bullish right now...


QQQQ...also broke resistance today. But on worse looking volume. Tech remains the laggard with only 2 of the 4 horseman closing positive. I would look elsewhere for the best longs...something is wrong here...until it leads, i would be hesitant to buy QQQQ. With Dell's earning's miss and bad outlook, QQQQ might again lag tomorrow


XLF...a continued move off of yesterday's breakout today and on huge volume. I am very impressed with financial's strength today...and would not be shorting financials at this moment...


UUP...this was the real reason for the drop in oil today, not the the storm that might hurt oil supply...Hard to say where it will go from here as its right at resistance yet again...


USO...dropped huge on the strength of the dollar today. I don't know where oil will go next...



Analysis: Overall a very bullish day today. CNBC continually noted that volume was light but compared to the days of the past 2 weeks, today's volume was actually quite good. I got out of my short DIA position today mainly because of the huge breakout in SPX and the big volume continued move up in financials. I am unsure about QQQQ, USO, and UUP though. With only one more day left to trade this week, i really doubt that we will get big breakouts or breakdowns in oil or the dollar tomorrow which will probably suggest that SPX will not move much either...but with this week making multiple triple digit moves in the dow this week, i would not be surprised to see bigger than expected moves tomorrow...As i look back at this week, i feel that it was a great week just to take a vacation as the low volume has made for tough trading...

Game Plan: Watch out for the dollar and oil charts for breakouts or breakdowns. Other than that, i would just leave my portfolio in mainly cash as we can get a huge surprise over the weekend and get screwed over in the shortened trading week next week.

Bias: 55/45 Bullish

Watch List (after looking at about 150 charts): 19 bullish, 6 bearish, 7 neutral

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