Monday, August 25, 2008

8/25 - Market Analysis

SPX...huge drop back down to resistance...i guess it will trade sideways here for a few more days...


QQQQ...back down to a weak support...think it will move slightly higher from here...encouraging for bears that we had higher volume today than friday


XLF...very minuscule volume here...today's fall does nothing in terms of supports or resistance...good time to just sidetrade


Euro...making a doji at resistance..most likely to fall more from here...


UUP...still in line to move higher which goes in line with my predictions in the euro and the markets...

USO...doesn't seem to matter much what oil does nowadays at these levels...but for analysis sakes, looks like this will also drop a little lower before more support

XME...best sector out there to short as its on good trendline resistance and will do badly if the dollar continues to strengthen...


Analysis: Again, i feel that we have many mixed signals...The volume remains low and it seems that it will stay low until next tuesday at the earliest...Nothing brokeout or brokedown today and we are basically still between resistance and support levels for most of the charts...with many traders on vacation, trading will most likely be very choppy from day to day this week...but overall, we should end the week somewhere around where we started...That is what the charts are telling me...I would have most of my portfolio in cash and maybe have a small short position in basic materials...the watch list remains mainly unchanged just that i caution that its very important to pick the worst of breed to short and best of breed to go long, as we are in a stockpicker's market...

Game Plan: Plan to be patient and not overinvest in this very low volume sideways trading environment...

Long Sectors:

PPH
Tech

Short Sectors:

Tech (short term play)
Casino / Gaming
XME
Agriculture
Coal Stocks

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