QQQQ...Leader to Laggard today despite good earnings from HPQ but good thing for bulls is that support holds and oscillators still point to more bullishness
XLF...pretty good volume today as it seems to be able to touch the breakdown level as early as tomorrow...breaking much higher than that still seems unlikely though
USO...oil was very whippy intraday today, mirroring the intraday movement in SPX...it lost all its early gains as there was a surprise buildup in crude oil supplies today but as the dollar dropped around lunch, oil gained back all its gains and a little more to finish with a very bullish candle. Surprisingly, as oil reached its intraday highs, so was SPX finishing off with a nice rally.
UUP...dollar weakened late in the day but overall a very indecisive day.
Euro...off support and right at resistance...i'll keep an eye on this for clues on the dollar...
Commodities...(originally had $crx but after more analysis, i think DBC has a better relationship to commodities) Like some agriculture equities, DBC has broken out of a downtrend and slightly pierced through resistance. But, we still don't have a good volume, good price movement breakout confirmation yet. Expect it soon if we do breakout. A breakdown past support here would mean nights out for oil bulls and dollar bears...good chart to look at...
Analysis: Today went according to plan. It takes some aggressive shorts off guard and probably scared some of them out of their positions. I know this because i got a little scared. Despite prediciting for a rally to occur today, the flood of losses to recently bought positions caused some fear in my head. From the volume and strength intraday, i feel that the we can rally for another day, to possibly the breakdown level. I don't expect much more upside than the breakdown level but as we are in a very scary market, i wouldn't be surprised if we do. Oil and the dollar are key again and financials should again be the laggard. Keep an eye on volume and the breakdown level as they will lend the best signs in terms of future price action.
Game Plan: I've be looking to keep emotions controlled and hold all positions that still hold my positions as long as they don't have reversals on the 30" chart. If we breakdown hard tomorrow with strong volume, i will add a short or switch out laggards for better stocks. If the dollar falls, i will look to add an energy long. Overall, i'll be patient and wait for better confirmation before adding or selling positions. As some of my shorts acted with relative strength today, if opportunity represents itself, i will switch out for better positions...
Predition: Tomorrow should trade sideways to slightly up but with less volume than today. I also expect more strength from oil.
Long Sectors:
Agriculture (dollar weakening)
Commodities and Materials (dollar weakening)
Energy (oil finding a short term bottom and many inverse head and shoulder's patterns)
Short Sectors:
Financials (fundamentally weakest + relative weakness in charts)
Casino / Gaming (weakness in China's market and weakening dollar)
Retailers (sales down and consumer confidence at lows...charts showing failure to break resistance)
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