8/6 - Market Analysis

SPX made a small but meaningful move today. Holding gains and strong intraday strength is no laughing matter. I'm bullish neutral here and would like to see a huge breakout to turn giddy bullish:


A new chart...the VIX...confirmed the move in SPX and actually magnifies how important the move in SPX was today....more bullish signals...


UUP breaking out on great volume for 2nd straight day. Oil can't stand a chance against this dollar strength (and for that...forget an USO chart today...same old story....)



QQQQ, the strongest index of the day and possibly the entire month. It very much consolidated this past month but today blast off on average volume to lead the market to a gain for the day. Will SPX follow QQQQ's lead tomorrow? very possible...I'm long big tech...


XLF was the reason for the unremarkable move in SPX and DIA today. XLF looks ready to breakout. Not many signs showing that it will breakdown but until its confirmed, financials are still risky plays...nevertheless, i am long SOME financials


Analysis: today was a huge day...biggest day in weeks if u ask me...the moves in some of the stocks on my watch list was incredible. but to the untrained eye, today was very boring...that would be because of the boring day we had in financials. Every sector that was either at resistance of support today, made a huge move up - oil services, casinos, big tech. I was excited today...there were some very great setups today but the big names never gave any pullback for good times to buy. Nevertheless, i got in on 2 small positions...a long in financials and a long in big tech. I expect the SPX to follow QQQQ and UUP's lead in breaking out. It might not be tomorrow as it seems too obvious and might just throw a curveball with a steady 100 pt down day tomorrow in the DJIA, but very soon, we will breakout in big fashion with good volume. and when we do, i will be adding to my longs...As for now, small positions in low risk, high reward equities is good.

Game Plan: tomorrow, i would like to see a huge breakout day in the XLF and SPX...But if that does not happen, and instead we have a down or consolidation day, i will be looking into buying 1 more long position in a stock that has already broken out. WYNN and RIMM come to mind first but there are many good setups out there on the longside. I haven't seen any shorts out there except for oil and that tells me that the market is either very bullish or that i am too dangerously bullishly biased. I'll make another scan of the charts later to make sure i am unbiased in my analysis, but for now...here are my lists:

Conviction Buy List:

Strong Retail (shld, rost)
Strong Financials that have consolidated in price lately (ibn, bk)
Breakout Pharma (bmy)
Strong Tech (msft, aapl, goog, rimm)
Chinese Stocks (fxi, visn, edu)
Exchanges (ndaq, nyx)
Oversold Energy (mee)

Conviction Sell List:

USO