8/29 - Market Analysis

SPX...fell back to the resistance it broke out from yesterday. i feel this is most likely a retest...but i'm overall neutral here


SPX weekly..this shows that we still have room to rally....


QQQQ...the laggard and reason for the weakness in the stock market....will it continue to take down the market? Is its weakness more important than XLF's strength?


QQQQ weekly...in a huge triangle...how will it break?


XLF...the leader yet again (with good volume too)...i see it going to rectangle resistance....


XLF weekly...can it go up to resistance? possible...


UUP...all the dollar does is move oil now...not even the market...its strength intraday to make up early morning losses was incredible...still no opinion here as its right at resistance...breakout?


USO...big rise caused by the dollar weakness that later fell and eventually closed at its lows at about even for the day....the dollar, not the hurricane is the reason...cnbc, please get the story right! and..yes its fucking weak....watch the symmetrical triangle (a continuation pattern, fyi)


Analysis: This week was sure boring....as my fellow titan, i too wish that i took a week off this week...at hindsight, i can say that this week's charts were rather unimportant. sure we did get some slight breakouts from channels and saw strength in financials and weakness in tech, but overall, with unexceptional volume, not much has changed in the bigger scheme of things...the weekly charts are basically the same as last week and with low volume all around, its hard to tell where the real strength and weakness is....that is why i am very neutral right now...i slightly favor the bullish side but i would not put money into it....atleast not yet.

Mindset: my overall mindset is confusion...i definitely got more confused than otherwise from staying at the desk this week. i really think a week off would have done better for my analysis than sitting here watching the tape...i know for sure that it would have been better for my portfolio. definitely was a week pull of daytraders whipsawing all the weak hands out there...as a victim, i know....hopefully next week's shortened trading week won't be as boring...but no promises as usually shortened weeks have low volume as well...a 2 week trip starting last friday night sounds great next year...

Bias: 55/45 bullish

Strong: Financials, Retailers, Casinos, Refiners
Weak: Tech

Swami's predictions for 9/2

S&P 500: No Pick

Pick of the Day: None

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-6
Pick of the Day: 10-8

*should schedule vacation last week of august next year

8/28 - Market Analysis

SPX...broke out of major resistance today on decent volume. Its enough to knock the bear out of me...I am neutral and near bullish right now...


QQQQ...also broke resistance today. But on worse looking volume. Tech remains the laggard with only 2 of the 4 horseman closing positive. I would look elsewhere for the best longs...something is wrong here...until it leads, i would be hesitant to buy QQQQ. With Dell's earning's miss and bad outlook, QQQQ might again lag tomorrow


XLF...a continued move off of yesterday's breakout today and on huge volume. I am very impressed with financial's strength today...and would not be shorting financials at this moment...


UUP...this was the real reason for the drop in oil today, not the the storm that might hurt oil supply...Hard to say where it will go from here as its right at resistance yet again...


USO...dropped huge on the strength of the dollar today. I don't know where oil will go next...



Analysis: Overall a very bullish day today. CNBC continually noted that volume was light but compared to the days of the past 2 weeks, today's volume was actually quite good. I got out of my short DIA position today mainly because of the huge breakout in SPX and the big volume continued move up in financials. I am unsure about QQQQ, USO, and UUP though. With only one more day left to trade this week, i really doubt that we will get big breakouts or breakdowns in oil or the dollar tomorrow which will probably suggest that SPX will not move much either...but with this week making multiple triple digit moves in the dow this week, i would not be surprised to see bigger than expected moves tomorrow...As i look back at this week, i feel that it was a great week just to take a vacation as the low volume has made for tough trading...

Game Plan: Watch out for the dollar and oil charts for breakouts or breakdowns. Other than that, i would just leave my portfolio in mainly cash as we can get a huge surprise over the weekend and get screwed over in the shortened trading week next week.

Bias: 55/45 Bullish

Watch List (after looking at about 150 charts): 19 bullish, 6 bearish, 7 neutral

Swami's predictions for 8/29

S&P 500: No Pick

Pick of the Day: No Pick

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-6
Pick of the Day: 10-8

8/27 - Market Analysis

SPX...hit support and back down....


QQQQ...hit support and also back down...weak index yet again...still within the channel


XLF...a leader yet very very light volume....


UUP...fell from resistance yet again...(mistake on chart...the purple line should be where the gap day in early august closed.)


USO...still in the ascending triangle...and increasing volume as it slowly moves towards resistance...We will watch oil as a proxy for commodities and energy


Analysis: Price patterns held today for the most part, with the exception of a low volume breakout from XLF...I got in on a short DIA position today thinking that the next move will be a test of support and can very likely break. The dollar seems to be weakening and if this weakness continues, commodities of all sorts will rally. I am currently short steel and looking for a great opportunity to switch my position to a long position tomorrow. As has worked for most of 2008, i believe that it is time again to short financials, pick and choose with tech, and long energy and commodities...Confirmation would be breakdowns of support and so far that has not happened. Therefore, i suggest that it is not a bad idea to hold a small position in shorting the market or have a long position going long dollar sensitive commodities. In my opinion, the best trade would be to short the dollar and long commodities...they are coming off good support and making higher lows while XLF has been having remarkable strength lately.

Game Plan: If all still looks to be falling today and the dollar continues to rally, my main job tomorrow is to get rid of my short steel position.

Stance: 70/30 bear

Long List:

gold miners, gld
metals and mining, xme
oil services, oih
refiners, xle
agriculture


Short List:

financials, xlf
exchanges, nyx
retail, xrt
ILMN

Swami's predictions for 8/28

S&P 500: No Pick

Pick of the Day: No Pick

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-6
Pick of the Day: 10-8

8/26 - Market Analysis

SPX...with the help of new settings to the MACD (back to the slower, normal 12,26,9 instead of the 5,34,5), i can see that i should be more bearish than neutral. A great signal that we might breakdown are the comparisons of the bounces off support.


QQQQ....this chart is the hardest to read as it has withstood much of the weakness in financials. this chart might hold its support but its more likely to just fall nicely down its channel


IWM...similarities with the previous leg down make me wonder if we are setting up for the exact same outcome. Watch for a close below 200 as good confirmation of more weakness to follow


XLF...again, we see similarities in price patterns with the the prior leg down. It was XLF's intraday weakness that dragged down the market and caused it to lose all its morning gains. If we fall, XLF will certainly do the same in the daily chart. But strength at the end of the day on decent volume is something to take note of...


UUP...back up to resistance...breakout or breakdown? with a position in commodities, i definitely will need to pay attention to tomorrow's price action of the dollar


USO...oil making a higher low? if this holds, and shoots higher, we might again see 150 dollar oil. But for now, USO needs much more volume to break resistance.


XME...looking much less bearish than before...chart still the same. oscillators and a refreshed mind is what changed...


Analysis: I have to first say that today is my first day doing the analysis with new parameters for the MACD. For about the past 1/2 year, i have been using a faster MACD. Today, i felt that it would be good to go back to the parameters most ppl use and to my surprise, everything made so much more sense. Patterns were no longer so neutral and were actually much more bearish. It made me rethink my holdings and feel that XME might be turning bullish instead of on another leg down. As i think that i might be placing too much emphasis on oscillators and less on price, i will be patient and methodical with my intraday chart analysis tomorrow. I will sell only if price says so...the dollar will be important and so will the relative strength of commodities if the market falls tomorrow. Overall though, i am feeling much more bearish on the market than before...i see patterns i didn't see before and most of the signs now look bearish. but i am hesitant to predict that a breakdown will occur before labor day as we are still suffering from very light volume. the price move i am expecting to occur will need much more volume than we are having.

I would like to add that today, as the market fell after the morning strength, i noticed that as oil was falling down, so was the market. It made me think that maybe the market likes strength in oil and needs it to stay above these levels (maybe it really is a good sign of global growth / weakness)...I thought that its possible that most of the traders are trading energy and as those stock fell, so too did the market. But as the day went on, SPX didn't seem to follow oil quite so much. So i had to look at other sectors, and realized that SPX fell and rose all because of XLF...financials lost steam early and the SPX eventually was dragged down by the financials. And as XLF shot up late in the day, so too did SPX...My conclusion is that oil really doesn't mean much to the market anymore, unless it can break its resistance or break down past its support. the neutral range where oil sits now is of little concern to the traders...So until we see a breakout or breakdown, i don't expect to put much weight on USO in my analysis

Game Plan: Look to sell short commodity positions and to buy a short position in financials if the market continues to look weak.

Bias: 70/30 bearish

Buy List:

AMZN
INTC
UNG

Sell List:

ILMN
ZEUS
WYNN, LVS, MGM, PENN
NYX, CME

Swami's predictions for 8/27

S&P 500: Down

Pick of the Day: DIA Put

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-5
Pick of the Day: 10-7

8/25 - Market Analysis

SPX...huge drop back down to resistance...i guess it will trade sideways here for a few more days...


QQQQ...back down to a weak support...think it will move slightly higher from here...encouraging for bears that we had higher volume today than friday


XLF...very minuscule volume here...today's fall does nothing in terms of supports or resistance...good time to just sidetrade


Euro...making a doji at resistance..most likely to fall more from here...


UUP...still in line to move higher which goes in line with my predictions in the euro and the markets...

USO...doesn't seem to matter much what oil does nowadays at these levels...but for analysis sakes, looks like this will also drop a little lower before more support

XME...best sector out there to short as its on good trendline resistance and will do badly if the dollar continues to strengthen...


Analysis: Again, i feel that we have many mixed signals...The volume remains low and it seems that it will stay low until next tuesday at the earliest...Nothing brokeout or brokedown today and we are basically still between resistance and support levels for most of the charts...with many traders on vacation, trading will most likely be very choppy from day to day this week...but overall, we should end the week somewhere around where we started...That is what the charts are telling me...I would have most of my portfolio in cash and maybe have a small short position in basic materials...the watch list remains mainly unchanged just that i caution that its very important to pick the worst of breed to short and best of breed to go long, as we are in a stockpicker's market...

Game Plan: Plan to be patient and not overinvest in this very low volume sideways trading environment...

Long Sectors:

PPH
Tech

Short Sectors:

Tech (short term play)
Casino / Gaming
XME
Agriculture
Coal Stocks

Swami's predictions for 8/26

S&P 500: No Pick

Pick of the Day: DVN Call

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-5
Pick of the Day: 9-7

8/22 - Market Analysis

SPX...ended right on huge resistance on low volume


QQQQ...bounce up slightly and is now right between resistance and support...


XLF...the leader today as it ended right on nearterm resistance...possibility to break out of pivot to rectangle resistance


USO...huge fall today from resistance and wound up losing all of its gains from past 2 days of rallying...definitely was affected by the resistance the commodities charts were showing on thursday's close


UUP...rose big and again holds the trendline...but now between support and resistance


SPX weekly...shows that the longer timeframe is very bearish and shows that this point is not just resistance in the daily but also the weekly


QQQQ weekly...huge triangle with great risk/reward on either a breakdown or breakout. declining volume points to a failure to breakout


IWM weekly...strongest index with a good probability of breaking out soon, but not this week...volume has been very bullish


XLF weekly...most likely down weeks in the future but i suspect that the worst we can fall from here is just the july lows...


Euro weekly...decent bounce but overall weak...i suspect more weakness here til it hits better support


Analysis: Still we have many mixed signals. The low volume is throwing off my analysis and causing me to be more cautious in the market than i would like to be. Some charts show resistance, some support, but many also show a grey area in between both support and resistance. this makes for a very complicated trading environment. I am all cashed out awaiting better signals. As a swing trader, i am hoping for a huge volume breakout or breakdown, as it will give me a good entry point for a possible weeklong position play. with such low volume moves in the market, i cannot feel confident holding any position for longer than 1 or 2 days. I don't see much risk/reward for the bulls or bears in the upcoming week as we are heading into a 3 day weekend and the start of school. I expect similar low volume gyrational moves as i doubt there will be any big news to come this week. If i had to choose, i would like to see a breakdown more than a breakout as the targets are more defined to the downside for the markets than the upside. Overall, the best trades i see are the short commodities and energy as they have already started to show weakness at resistance.

Game Plan: maybe get in on a small position on a short of commodities or energy tomorrow...not much planned for tomorrow except to hopefully get a good read of the market from intraday moves...

Weekly Outlook: market will trade fairly sideways with low volume...Dow should end within 100pts of friday's close....Oil should continue to fall and the dollar should rise...

Sector of the Week: XME down

Long Sectors:

PPH (pharmaceuticals are in a nice upward channel)
Tech (remarkable strength in some tech such as RIMM)

Short Sectors:

Casino / Gaming (intraday very weak)
XME (downtrend resistance)
Agriculture (downtrend resistance)
Coal Stocks ((downtrend resistance)

Swami's predictions for 8/25

S&P 500: No Pick

Pick of the Day: No Pick

All-time Records:
S&P 500: 8-5
Pick of the Day: 9-7

8/21 - Market Analysis

SPX got a perfect pullback on low volume to major resistance...


QQQQ at good support after lagging SPX today to close slightly lower...


IWM is also at good support as it made a 1% drop, making it the laggard of all major averages...but with very low volume


MDY falling onto the uptrend support as it again traded sideways with very low volume...


XLF dropped nearly 2 % today but might be making a rectangle pattern...


USO got a very nice gapping pop today with very bullish volume...it was also able to close at its highs which happens to be an area of some resistance...


UUP dropped helping USO today...it is a at a point where if it breaks, it can easily close the gap window...


XME....we have seen mining stocks, like all other commodities have jumped higher because of dollar weakness lately. Here can we can see that it is hitting strong resistance. Might this hint that the dollar might continue its rise soon?


PPH...strong sector i see technically...support just below today's levels make for a good industry to start looking for longs.




Analysis: Big headline of the day is the rise in the SPX and DJIA despite a huge rally in oil and a big fall in the dollar and a rise in the euro. I have been hoping for a low volume pullback to the trendline at SPX, a dollar falling, and oil rising and today i got all 3. Unfortunately, somehow the SPX continued to rise even as oil fell. An ideal move would have been a morning gap up to the trendline on the SPX, then continued weakness to close much lower near yesterday's close as oil rebounds and the dollar falls. Today we didn't get that...Today's action confused me a whole lot. So much so that i liquidated all my assets. As technicals still look beautiful if looking at individual charts, it didn't seem wise to sell anything, but the conflicting signals over the course of the day made me feel that its best to be in cash. I shall wait for clearer signals tomorrow as i will likely head into the weekend without any positions. Financials will be key as it needs to hold support for the market to continue rising. Also very important is the action in SPX as it is still in between resistance and support areas. My theory on today's rise in both oil and the market is that oil's bounce was a short selling rally with big volume but no lasting power. Traders know this and also feel confident that the fed or Mr. Paulson might come in to give a boost to the economy as early as this weekend (most likely wth FNM or FRE). It seemed very much like smart money buying in on inside information. I don't know what else to make of the move higher today. With today's oil and dollar move, i would have felt kinda bullish to just see the DJIA down 100 points, but to actually end positive is more than strong, its extraordinary. Definitely the first time we had strong relative strength vs. oil in many many months. An idea i have been hearing around is that today's rally in oil is positive for the markets as it might mean strengthening of the global market. A possibility...i guess...espeically since oil is down to a level that is manageable and not so expensive that it totally damages the American consumer (evidence is bullish candle in RTH today).

Game Plan: Sidelined tomorrow as i try to make sense of the market some more. Tomorrow's candle will either do nothing or reveal much about the upcoming week...Definitely going to be important to watch the intraday action and see where the money is flowing into.

Mindset: 55/45 Bullish...as there are more charts at support than resistance, things looking kinda more bullish even though SPX is at resistance. but overall, very confused....

Ideal Bullish Sign: if XLF bounces up strong tomorrow on huge volume
Ideal Bearish Sign: if XLF breaks down strong out of the rectangle on bigger than average volume

Long Sectors:

PPH (pharmaceuticals are in a nice upward channel)
Tech (remarkable strength in some tech such as RIMM)

Short Sectors:

Casino / Gaming (intraday very weak)
XME (downtrend resistance)
Agriculture (downtrend resistance)
Coal Stocks ((downtrend resistance)