Wednesday, October 1, 2008

10/1 - Market Analysis

In the News:
- buffett buys into GE
- senate to vote for bailout
- dissapointing ISM numbers
- very horrible auto sales (F sept sales down 34.6%)

Technicals:
- pause day on below average volume
- recovered from huge losses in morning to come back to even
- financials led the intraday rally

SPX
- pause day to stay above support


NDX
- another inside candle day
- pausing


RKH
- more important than XLF
- rallied hard today (best example is BAC and C that rose 8.9% and 12.4% respectively)
- ended at resistance


UUP
- gap up then closed well off highs
- hit resistance and failed to break it
- get ready to SHORT dollar as its 2x topping on light volume
- bearish oscillator divergance


FXE
- bullish oscillator divergence
- LONG LONG LONG!


CRB
- 2x bottom forming
- another consolidation day on support
- in line with dollar's possible topping pattern


Analysis: Overall a pause day...best things to go long would be regional banks when looking at relative strength. but judging from the currency and commodity charts, the dollar should fall and the euro and commodities will rise. It can very well be a forecasting of the passing of the bailout bill very soon. At the time of blogging, the senate has passed the bill with an overwhelming majority...the house will vote friday and there is little doubt that it will be passed...which of course will kill the dollar in the short term...giving a great buy signal to commodities...

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