10/21 - Market Analysis

SPX
- triangle pattern really taking shape now
- real near breakout or breakdown point now as volume is near nonexistant
- target on the pattern means we can have a huge move very soon (calm before the storm)



NDX
- not so nice of a triangle
- tech is again a laggard


RKH
- might it be making a bullish flag?
- still above support so can't say that markets will fall just yet


USO
- trendline continues to be very strong
- a support is still held...lets see if it can provide a nice area to bounce off from
- still down so expect any market rally to fail, especially commodities


VIX
- struggled to try to break above the breakdown price but failed and made a doji
- maybe the MA below will turn out to be good support
- overall though, looks ready to topple more


A/D
- this continues to be a great indicator for the strength / weakness of market moves
- today looks quite bearish from this indicator

Analysis: overall trend is down, so any patterns should be looked at with a bearish bias. all rallies should lend good entry points for the next leg down and thats how we should look at the market. it would not be wise to get optimistic now as we are neutral and in a bear market, money is definitely in favor of the bears...best way to buy now are to short or go long stocks after price breaks out of the triangle pattern on strong volume...money on the table now is just very risky...50/50 if you ask me...

Sectors

best - slv, kol, uup, ung, xlv, rkh, xli, xlf (all virtually unchanged today)
worst - gdx, fxi, xlk, eem, uso, tan

- no huge percentage drops compared to other decline days...nothing in the double digits atleast...means today is kind of a consolidation or a small taste of a very strong fall to come...definitely a time to be safe and have right stops